Despite (i) Crippling economic US sanctions against Iran after withdrawal of USA from Iran nuclear deal
(ii) Six tankers explosion in that region in the last one month including two on June 13, which crippled the Japanese Kokuka Courageous and the Norwegian Front Altair, forcing their crews to abandon ship which the U.S. the Saudis and UK said that Iran was behind the attacks (which Iran vociferously denied) and
(iii) On June 20 Iran shooting down a US military drone which the US claimed was in international airspace (while Iran said was over Iranian territory) with the result a military operation to strike Iran over the downing of a US drone was set to begin that night when the President called it off 10 minutes before strike, as US President said in public statement.
The war between USA and its allies and supporters v/s Iran and its allies and supporters has not started so-far for the simple reason that Iran can’t afford it and President Trump does not want it because he will otherwise face electoral problems (as Trump during 2016 campaign told to his support base that what to talk of fresh war rather he will pull out all troops from foreign countries) and also due to the fact that Democrats are telling the Americans that Republican Trump pulled-out unilaterally and arbitrarily of Iran nuclear deal (which was signed by Democrat President Obama) and that is the root cause of the US-Iran problem with its adverse international ramifications.
- In any US-Iran military flare-up, India will stop getting most of the oil from the Gulf and Middle East region. Presently Indian economy is heavily dependent on oil and 70 per cent of oil consumption in India is out of imports which means that in case of a huge reduction of oil imports the Indian economy (with rural distress) will become unviable and unsustainable to a large extent. As far 30 per cent of India’s consumption of oil which India produces, the substantial part of it will be given to Indian Military which will need it urgently due to exacerbated Kashmir problem (in addition to homegrown terrorism after Killing of Burhan Wani in 2016) also instigated by Pakistan, an adversary supported all-out by China.
- Huge bloodshed of Shias and Sunnis in World War III is bound to create huge political and law and order problems in India as it will create bad-blood & ill feelings not only between Sunnis and Shais of India (200 million) but also between Muslims and non-Muslims of India.
- During World War III, India will not be able to remain non-aligned (strategically independent) which will bring Indo-US tension to the fore on two counts (i) ‘Indo-Pacific doctrine’ which USA is trying to thrust on India when it says that “India is a crucial partner in the Trump administration’s vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region” and (ii) ‘US-India military cooperation and interoperability doctrine’ being pushed by the USA under which USA is asking India to give-up S-400 missile defense system deal with Russia.
In order to avoid all these problems, India (and its Muslim population) should take active interest for solving US-Iran problem by offering to provide manpower for carrying out elections under UN in NAME region (first in Syria), by demanding one-State solution for Israel–Palestine problem and by demanding de-nuclearisation.
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