With India expected to ‘turn the corner’ on the back of structural reforms, its economy is projected to clock 7 per cent growth in 2015 even as China would see an economic slowdown, says a study.
Presenting predictions by its economists for the New Year, global consultancy PwC said India is expected to resume growing at more than 6 per cent after seeing expansion below this level since 2012.
“We think 2015 could be the year that India turns the corner, posting growth of around 7 per cent. In the short term, low oil prices are likely to increase GDP growth, ease the pressures of India’s high current account deficit and help bring down inflation,” it said.
Regarding the country’s medium-term economic prospects, PwC said, “We think that the February 2015 budget could see India take a step towards implementing new structural reforms which will boost the economy.”
India’s economic growth was below 5 per cent in the last two financial years. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecast the economy to grow at 5.5 per cent in 2014-15 (ending this March) and at 6.3 per cent in next financial year 2015-16.
PwC said that even though China is expected to make the biggest contribution to global growth this year, its projected growth rate of 7.2 per cent “would be its slowest since 1990 and its high debt levels pose some downside risks to that main scenario”.
While the US is expected to see the fastest growth in a decade, euro zone is anticipated to see quantitative easing programme involving the purchase of government bonds, it noted.
As per the report, businesses should look out for three factors this year – oil prices, hard landing in China and escalation of geopolitical risks.
“Our predictions and projections assume that oil prices will average between $60-70 over the course of 2015 and finish the year at around USD 80. However, due to the highly unpredictable nature of oil prices, businesses should plan for different scenarios,” PwC senior economist Richard Boxshall said.
Besides, an escalation of the geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine as well as in the Middle East could have a negative influence on business confidence, with consequent implications for global growth, it added.