The BJP has taken quite a lot of twists and turns in politics. The BJP is accused of accommodating all the corrupt politicians of other parties in alliance with them. In our culture, the dreaded criminal Valya became Valmiki when he got the right directions and orders in life. When a corrupt leader comes to the BJP, it is chronicled that he will not do corruption again. All those corrupt leaders of other parties, such as the Shiv Sena and NCP, are tamed down in the alliance. No case against Ajit Pawar has been withdrawn since he joined the BJP. But somewhere in Maharashtra, people are not happy due to manipulative politics played out in the open by the BJP.
First, Eknath Shinde cracked out of the Shiv Sena, snatching away the name and symbol of the original Shiv Sena. Now, the Ajit Pawar group was lured to join the alliance of the BJP. The mounting ED pressure and speculations about Ajit Pawar getting arrested made people believe that the BJP and Modi were definitely going to punish the corrupt. On several occasions, Devendra Fadnavis and Modi made scorching attacks on Ajit Pawar and the NCP, calling them “National Corrupt parties.” The chances of the BJP coming back to power in Maharashtra rest on the three-party alliance. The three parties together have a comfortable majority, and they can rock the boat at any cost. If the present coalition has to fall, any one of the partners can withdraw support. Why should they do that unless they have a better option?
The third option is if the BJP does extremely well in the local body and by polls, there are chances of a mass exodus from the alliance. But in the recent local body election, the BJP’s performance was just average. However, if the BJP is able to do well in municipal elections, there is a possibility of the party attracting MLAs. Also, if the BJP does extremely well in assembly elections in other states, that too may have its reflections.
Right now many political parties in alliance with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Maharashtra, such as Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) (mostly in Goa neighbouring area), Nationalist Congress Party of Ajit Pawar, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), Prahar Janshakti Party (PJP), Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP), Republican Party of India (Athawale) (RPI(A), The parties that may possibly join the alliance in future – merely on account of them being part of the NDA earlier are Goa Forward Party (GFP) and Some small unknown parties may align as per the direction of the wind at that time.
A lot depends on the general elections’ result, which will happen around May, 2024. Again, if the BJP shows itself to be too powerful, engulfing the entire political field of the nation and becoming impressively strong, there is a possibility of the alliance crumbling. Undoubtedly, the BJP will emerge as a big party with a record-breaking and thumping victory. I can envisage Modi becoming PM for the third time in the 2024 elections.
Considering the opposition party’s lack of vision without any constructive manifesto, a trustable face and conflict of interest could end the journey of many parties and politicians. In Maharashtra, the government should last till 2024, unless some constituent party goes crazy and withdraws support. Bawankule already made a statement to the media that, “In Maharashtra, we have started our work across 48 Lok Sabha seats and 288 Assembly constituencies. Irrespective of who contests which seat among our alliance partners, we will put forth our best efforts. The BJP is leaving no stone unturned to attain its goals.” Political parties remain in power or vibrant in politics so long as the party follows its ideology. If the party tries to change its ideology only to suit the particular time and space, it will start its downward trend. Gradually, the party becomes extinct too.
Already, people have formed an opinion of the Shiv Sena. The series of events that have shaken the state have harmed the Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray. Regional parties in other states also lost ground because of their arrogance. In Karnataka, Deve Gowda, who took over power from Ramakrishna Hegde in 1994, became too aggressive and arrogant. The party started diminishing. Now even the top leaders of the party are unable to win an election. Similar is the case in respect of the Samajwadi Party, BSP, RJD, RLD, INLD, TDP, CPIM, etc., and Congress, too, is following them in letter and spirit.
All these parties have been too powerful for regional or national parties that never expected to be overpowered. But now they are finding survival difficult. In the past two successive elections, in 2014 and 2019, the Narendra Modi factor played a significant role in Lok Sabha polls. The state BJP poll strategists believe Moditva will remain an integral factor even today. And people will decide on the Modi factor. Yet the party believes it will have to strengthen its own organization to take on the election challenges. Unlike in the past, when the Shiv Sena and BJP alliance fought against the Congress-NCP alliance, the dynamics have changed.
In the past year, the BJP’s Operation Lotus led to splits in two regional parties: the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar. The Shiv Sena led by CM Eknath Shinde and the NCP led by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar have pledged support to the BJP both in government and in the pre-poll alliance for 2024. This time, the elections ahead will be really interesting for everyone.
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