Devendra Fadnavis was laud enough in saying that he is going to be the CM once again, where as Sharad Pawar of NCP made it clear that he has no interest in aligning with Shiv Sena. Meanwhile, Shiv Sena stuck on power sharing. Shiv Sena showing old video clips of CM Fadnavis indicating compromise formula of 50/50 but BJP also came up with video clips on social media showing Shiv Sena leaders contradicting their own earlier statements. People might have many speculations after seeing these videos but the reality is that, once this drama is settled, Sena-BJP will form government in alliance. Modi and Amit Shah would never want to create an opposition out of Shiv Sena. That’s why they are still continuing with this alliance in spite all attacks from Sena. Shiv Sena has yielded too much ground to BJP in the state. This time also BJP won more number of seats in Sena bastion of Mumbai. BJP did suffer some loss in Western Maharashtra and Vidarbha but managed to hold its forte. BJP is the only party since 1990 Assembly election that has won more than 100 seats.
Shiv Sena is a career based party and a fierce opposition party. It is known to be street fighter party and its performance in governance has been below par as far as state government and Mumbai Corporation are concerned. It has been agreed between the BJP and the Shiv Sena that they will fight the elections to the Lok Sabha and later to the state assembly together. After the assembly elections, they will share the power together. While this was announced in the press conference by Uddhav Thackeray and Maharashtra CM Fadnavis, later, Shiv Sena leader Ramdas Kadam said that it was also agreed upon that there should be a Shiv Sena CM for 2.5 years and a BJP CM for the other 2.5 years. Subsequently, an audio clip attributed to Thackeray is going round that whoever has larger numbers will take CM post. Both will share seats equally, as has been agreed upon. Looks like they have deferred a potentially niggling dispute to be resolved at a later date.
Shiv Sena doesn’t have any option other than going with BJP. It would be difficult for Sena leaders to convince their voters to support for Congress and NCP. That’s why they oppose BJP but always keened a window open for reconciliation. This is an alliance of necessity rather than ideology. BJP could have gone alone in the election and perhaps have performed better. But they don’t want to create an extra opposition in states like Maharashtra and Bihar. Shiv Sena cannot go with Congress and NCP, which are contrast to their political ideology. If Shiv Sena forms an alliance with Congress/NCP it would end of the road for itself.
Shiv Sena with Congress+NCP is not a natural partner. Such an alliance cannot be sustainable and will be short lived like Karnataka like Kumaraswamy government. The experiment in Karnataka is an example where it failed miserably. Shiv Sena does not want to revive a fading political party. Congress for all practical purposes is losing. The only option remains in front of Sena is to bargain for more powers and for more accommodations within the NDA, rather than going with the strange Congress alliance. Shiv Sena has a pre-election alliance with BJP. Much notable is that Shiv Sena and BJP both contested election against Congress. If they embrace Congress now Shiv Sena will be targeted as having any moralities in politics. Shiv Sena indicated that it plans to play hardball with big brother BJP, they also indicated that it would insist on the 50:50 formulas during government formation.
Sena is insisting on dividing the 5-year tenure of the government, and occupy the Chief Minister’s office for two-and-a-half years. Whereas BJP shown no interest in sharing CM chair by dividing it in two tenures. But the BJP had not allowed the 50:50 seat share formula, which the Sena had wanted. Allowing it to contest only on 124 seats, the party had kept the lion’s share of 150 seats for itself after a grueling, and sometimes bitter, negotiation. As a sweetener, Shiv Sena was also offered the post of Deputy Chief Minister.
Shiv Sena is like tiger without claws. If Sena withdraws support to state government, BJP has alternatives, or is ready for election as well. Also Shiv Sena will divide vertically, further marginalising the party. It loses power in the Mumbai Municipal Corporation, the only one where Shiv Sena is in power.
Shiv Sena has been contesting elections with BJP since last 30 years. The party is doing fairly well. Most of the assembly elections till 2009, it has been securing more seats than BJP because it is contesting more seats. However, when the two contested separately Shiv Sena could get only half the seats of BJP. In the local body elections it could not get any municipal corporation except Thane. In Mumbai it became the largest party and that too just two seats more than BJP. Hence Shiv Sena is no more a power in Maharashtra and its reach is limited to parts of Mumbai.
Uddhav, is not a mass leader or a pan India leader like Fadnavis. His political gamble of taking on BJP and Modi has backfired him. Amit Shah is at his best when such situation arises. He definitely will play an important part in forming Maharashtra government. Neither BJP nor Sena can form Government without each other’s support and they know this fact. And voters too are sure that Shiv Sena will never join hands with NCP or Congress. So, this drama is just eyewash for time being.
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