Uttar Pradesh’s 2022 election result will be directly proportional to Lok Sabha’s 2024 results. If Yogi loses in 2022, more chances are that Modi loses in 2024. This will be a simulative package for the Opposition across the country. The efforts to unify the Opposition will get a boost. Also, if the defeat for BJP means Samajwadi’s victory, Akhilesh will become an important figure in the Opposition. If the BJP loses, that will be a setback for Adityanath since he was developing a hope to shift to the Centre in 2024. The BJP has made tall claims, high voltage market campaigns, but now everyone has seen everything about their marketing strategies repeatedly. The voters may teach lessons to these ignorant ministers who were found nowhere during public crises, be it pandemic or farmer’s agitation.
The biggest mistake of the Uttar Pradesh BJP is that they simply ignore people’s problems, there is no local connection. Even for election work, they trusted outsiders but not the locals. They invited pandal walas from MP, IT cell guys from Mumbai and Bangalore, campaigners from other states, hardly any role is given to Local people, and this is the reason local workers refrained from coming out to support BJP. 100s of women from Gujarat were brought to Uttar Pradesh to convince people to vote for Yogi Adityanath so that he can make UP a Gujrat model, those BJP voters who were supposed to vote, turned down the BJP because Gujrat Model scams were exposed on social media frequently.
Modi’s credibility is now under scanner as he is the face of the campaign but will not be proved to be a real loser as his chair will not be under any threat at this hour. The real loser will be YOGI, someone will evacuate forever him but at the cost of dismantling the whole UP BJP administration. Yogi is a larger force to reckon with but somewhere he is side-lined by the Central BJP. Yogi’s team will blame Modi’s team & Modi’s team will blame Yogi for the failures. Above all the state BJP also has divided in several groups, most of the BJP cadres have silently voted for opposition to teach the lesson to the party dictators. Yogi has lost credibility since BJP lost Panchayat Elections.
Let us assume that BJP loses the 2022 UP assembly election, then it will be an enormous setback for Yogi Adityanath. He is emerging as the poster boy of BJP and any defeat in UP may derail his political journey for some years. It will make way for Amit Shah to become the successor of PM Modi in BJP. But Yogi has age on his side and he is younger than Rahul Gandhi. So, he can make a comeback but it would temporarily halt his rise in BJP. This loss will also put pressure on Modi and he will have to do some course corrections to win the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Many economic reforms (which are already slow) will be derailed and the Government will start many populous measures (like freebies etc.).
BJP will have to reach out to make a coalition for the 2024 election as without 50-60 seats UP, they can’t even cross the 250 mark. BJP will have to cede some space to allies. This may end the single-party domination in India for a few decades. Meanwhile, the opposition camp will get energized and BJP’s loss in UP will be a boost for them. Then the 2022 Nov-Dec Gujarat election will be done and die for BJP (the most important assembly election in the Modi era). If BJP loses the next Gujarat election after UP then the Modi story may well be over. Once BJP loses Gujarat, then they cannot recover. In 2019 BJP overcame defeat in Rajasthan, MP, and Chhattisgarh, but Modi can’t survive a loss in the Gujarat and Uttarakhand elections.
Modi may have to face combined opposition in some states in the 2024 election. A grand opposition alliance like 1977 may be out of the question, but the opposition camp will come out with some sort of nominal anti-BJP alliance. We may see more agitations like Shahen Bagh, farmers protest, etc. We may have many confrontations on caste and religious lines as the opposition will try hard to create momentum against BJP. BJP may go for all-out decisions like Uniform Civil Code etc. for the 2024 election. This will galvanize BJP supporters and BJP haters. In summary, if BJP loses the UP election, then it would make the 2024 Lok Sabha election wide & open.
Further, it is now becoming increasingly clear that India and Indians have to be content with BJP for many decades irrespective of whether or not you like it. As of now, there are no national parties to take BJP head-on. Losing the largest and dandiest constituency is always a setback and irreparable loss to the ruling party and person. Yogi will be most affected and the entire onus will come on him as he got the best 5 years terms to gain voters’ trust. BJP will definitely get a setback in the assembly election as people will get other options open. People are getting frustrated due to fuel prices which is the most important commodity after food (whose prices are again affected by fuel prices) and during the Pandemic when fuel prices across the globe were at lowest and people were cash strapped due to loss in livelihood BJP had hardly anything to offer to commoners. People are smart enough to judge in electronic social culture. Hindutva’s ill imitation and secularism have nothing to do with Socioeconomic India in day-to-day life. If a section of Hindus breaks out due to economic conditions, then that is a dent in BJP’s vote share.
India has recently witnessed how BJP stalwarts including PM and HM of India located themselves for an entire month in West Bengal just to defeat Mamata Banerjee and unleash Corona’s 2nd wave on a much larger nation especially economic superpower Maharashtra. For PM it was winning election in Bengal then lives of voters gasping for breath and voters well-memorized vaccine diplomacy failure. Just like the UPA govt collapsed under efficient MMS, so will BJP failing under MODI. Modi has just 2 years to perform to at least gain sizable votes to continue the 3rd term and it should be entirely in poor and middle-class favour. In election-going Uttar Pradesh, candidates and campaigns of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are being chased away by the people and their campaign vehicles are attacked. It does not limit these unprecedented incidents to western Uttar Pradesh. Meanwhile, youth protests which started in Patna against alleged irregularities in the Railway Recruitment Board – Non-Technical Popular Categories (RRB-NTPC) examination have spilt over to UP. Meanwhile, BJP campaigners, including Union Home Minister Shah and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, are campaigning to polarize the voters along religious lines, but they have met with little success. Going by the viral videos posted on social media. So the change is inevitable.