With the Assembly elections due in five states early next year, a projection by ABP C-Voter shows that the road towards victory for the BJP and its allies is going to be a difficult one, wherein the Uttar Pradesh voter’s sentiments are exactly opposite of the said survey. Although the survey shows that the BJP will return in Uttar Pradesh, it is not happening without the party losing over 100 seats it won in the last state elections.
In Punjab, BJP and allies (BJP+) are expected to win zero seats whereas both the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress (INC) are locked in a neck-and-neck fight, but without either hitting the majority mark.
Anil Tiwari, a journalist from Uttar Pradesh said, “BJP will form the government in UP as they have both Hindutva and caste calculus in their favour. Wherever there is some issue with caste factors, Hindutva will play the crucial game, dharma overshadows caste equations. This will be played in Western UP. This is being applied currently in Eastern UP where PM Modi had to spend two days to make this hype.”
Atul Tiwary businessman said, “BJP win in the 2022 UP assembly elections. UP has always observed multipolar elections i.e., multiple political parties all having their own strong voter base. This always favoured BJP. Mayawati’s BSP may have lost UP Assembly elections badly but they had the second-best vote share. There is no anger against BJP in Uttar Pradesh and most of the people are satisfied with the way Yogi Aditya Nath. The much-awaited thing in Uttar Pradesh was, taking action against Mafia and Goons and Yogi Aditya Nath has done it excellently.”
Kumar Ashish, a Dalit activist said, “The major issue with this government is jobs and education and I think BJP would deal with it in the next term just like Nitish Kumar is doing in Bihar after winning again assembly elections. Surprisingly, backward classes and minorities are satisfied with the equal distribution of benefits among all whether it is welfare money for the poor, farmers or any other things like houses etc. Maybe Modi belongs to the backward community, they are strongly attached to these sentiments.”
A priest from Varanasi said under the condition of anonymity, “The BJP party will make tall claims, see how PM is doing high voltage market campaigns but now everyone has seen everything about their marketing strategy again and again. People have anger against Yogi Aditya Nath in Uttar Pradesh then Modi is capable enough to convert those votes in favour of the BJP. UP has achieved many things and lagging on various fronts people may again vote for BJP and Yogi Aditya Nath to do some good in future.”
Omprakash Tiwary, an educationist said, “In last three weeks I spent five days in Kashi. On 12 and 13 December, I was in Kashi. Today I boarded my flight from Varanasi airport. Sentiments of people in Varanasi are against Modi. BJP and Modi lagging behind Akhilesh Yadav, that is the reason Modi is spending a lot of time in the Eastern districts of UP. We are still two months away from the election but anti-Modi sentiments are on the ground and everybody is fed up with Yogi Adityanath.”
Ahmed Owais, a student from Varanasi said, “In the West Bengal, BJP did not have a Chief Ministerial face and that did backfire. You cannot win elections just in the name of Modi/Shah. You need local leadership like in the case of Assam to pull things. In the case of UP, despite all the negativity opposition is in tatters. Akhilesh is no match to Mamata or even Tejaswi for that matter. He has been hiding and is just limited to Facebook. He has no guts unlike his father to take BJP head-on. BJP might be reduced to 80–100 fewer seats maximum in Uttar Pradesh but still, it can win 210–225 seats easily on its own.”
Dinesh Vishwakarma, a carpenter from UP said, “As people were left to die on streets, almost every household in UP has faced this crisis. Someone who lost their relatives will vote against BJP just to teach a lesson to Yogi. BJP, Modi and Yogi will suffer a humiliating defeat in UP assembly election 2022, somewhat like a repeat of what BJP has faced in West Bengal Assembly election 2021.”
Mahesh Yadav, the banner designer said, “Momentum isn’t in their favour after they lost in West Bengal. Yogi’s image was good till last year but Covid’s mismanagement may cost both Yogi and Modi big time. But I believe it will all depend on how Akhilesh projects himself as he is the only person who can challenge Yogi.”
Prabhat Singh, from Bareilly, UP, said, “BJP which has been in the margins in UP politics till 2012 elections have become number one since 2014. Since then the party is only increasing its vote percentage. In 2014 the vote polled 42.7%, in 2017 39% and in 2019 49.98%. The BJP at present is having the support of half the population. At no time earlier except Congress could command such popularity. If BJP has to be defeated the caste-based parties of SP and BSP cannot defeat BJP. Congress in the state has vanished. Congress cannot even imagine vanquishing BJP.”
Indrajeet Singh a news anchor with TV9 said, “It is a Four Corner Fight between BJP, BSP, Congress and the Samajwadi Party. Even though SP has strongholds here the support to BJP is vast in UP. Congress is also using all strength but it will eat the BSP pocket. The Vote deposit of the BJP is still intact in the Upper Classes here. Samajwadi is practising social engineering on the neglected and unsatisfied voters of the BJP. Still, I feel that BJP will continue its reigning Chair even this time in Uttar Pradesh.”
Amarnath Dubey a member of the International Press Community (Varanasi) said, “BJP has worked a lot in UP. Their work was always in progress even in the Pandemic calamity. And the execution of work is quite good. Yes! The Samajwadi is doing Social Engineering but at the forefront, UP seems to be shining with BJP. BSP seems to have lost in front of the Yogi Adityanath Governance. Congress propaganda issues won’t be fruitful as BJP’s team is doing good in Media relations and public relations.”
We tried contacting various politicians but they could not be contacted due to winter sessions.