The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections, expected to be held in September, are shaping up to be a high-stakes contest between two major coalitions: the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The political landscape is marked by shifting alliances, internal conflicts, and a disenchanted voter base, making it a pivotal election for the future of Maharashtra’s governance.
The BJP’s Position: Challenges and Strategies
Union Home Minister Amit Shah has set an ambitious 11-point agenda for BJP workers, urging them to retain their stronghold by increasing voter turnout at every booth. The BJP currently holds a 25% vote share in Maharashtra, and Shah remains optimistic about the Mahayuti’s victory. However, the internal dynamics of the Mahayuti, which includes the BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP splinter group, pose significant challenges.
Alliance Issues and Credibility Problems:
- The BJP’s alliance with Ajit Pawar, following his defection from his uncle Sharad Pawar’s NCP, has been a controversial move. Ajit Pawar, who was made Deputy Chief Minister, lacks the same influence as Sharad Pawar, and his credibility was damaged by the split with his uncle. This decision may backfire, as traditional BJP voters view the alliance as opportunistic and unreliable.
- The alliance with Eknath Shinde, though considered more natural, has also faced challenges. Many voters still see Uddhav Thackeray’s faction as the “real” Shiv Sena, which undermines Shinde’s legitimacy despite his position as Chief Minister.
Devendra Fadnavis’s Tarnished Image: Fadnavis, once a popular BJP leader in Maharashtra, saw his reputation suffer due to a failed attempt to form a government with Ajit Pawar in 2019. The early morning oath-taking ceremony, followed by his quick resignation, hurt his image. Moreover, the vertical split in Shiv Sena orchestrated by Fadnavis has not gone down well with voters, especially those who believe he acted prematurely in pulling down the MVA government.
Governance Issues: BJP’s alliance with Ajit Pawar has led to further discontent. The Maharashtra government has been criticized for its failure to address key issues such as farm distress, poverty, Maratha reservations, increasing crime against women, and infrastructural deficiencies. Devendra Fadnavis, who holds the Home Minister portfolio, has failed to project a strong image in tackling these problems.
The Opposition: Maha Vikas Aghadi’s Growing Strength
The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, and the Congress, has gained ground in recent months. Despite internal challenges, the MVA is in a strong position to contest the elections and potentially defeat the Mahayuti. Their collective influence surpasses that of the BJP-Eknath Shinde-Ajit Pawar alliance.
Sharad Pawar’s Enduring Influence: Sharad Pawar continues to be a key player in Maharashtra politics. His NCP faction, despite Ajit Pawar’s defection, remains influential. Pawar’s credibility and deep-rooted political connections make him a formidable opponent to the BJP.
Uddhav Thackeray’s Leadership: Uddhav Thackeray, despite the challenges of splitting his party, remains a respected leader. His decision to join hands with Congress and NCP was seen as a strategic move, but he maintained Shiv Sena’s autonomy, unlike Eknath Shinde, who is perceived as subordinate to BJP directives. Uddhav’s position as the true leader of the Shiv Sena resonates strongly with voters, especially after his tenure as Chief Minister under the MVA government.
The Aftermath of the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections
The BJP’s dismal performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where they secured only 9 seats in Maharashtra, further complicates their prospects in the assembly polls. Amit Shah’s rallying cry for BJP workers to focus on grassroots efforts reflects the party’s awareness of the need for a significant turnaround.
Modi Magic Fading: The once-potent “Modi magic” seems to have waned in Maharashtra. Educated urban voters, in particular, have grown disillusioned with the BJP’s “destructive politics,” and the party’s reliance on corrupt turncoats like Ashok Chavan has alienated its traditional support base. Even if the BJP contests the elections in all constituencies without an alliance, its vote share is unlikely to exceed 30%.
The Complex Dynamics of Alliances and Voter Sentiment
One of the key dynamics in this election is the fragmentation of the Shiv Sena vote. While the combined Shiv Sena vote traditionally stood at 15-16%, this will now be split between Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde. Voter sentiment seems to favor Uddhav Thackeray’s faction, which has managed to maintain its identity despite the MVA alliance. In contrast, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is perceived as weakened, despite his role as Chief Minister.
BJP’s alliance with Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction is also seen as a strategic misstep. Many believe that breaking the MVA government prematurely was a mistake, akin to the BJP’s failure in Karnataka, where they lost sympathy after pulling down a popular coalition government.
The Road Ahead for the BJP
For the BJP to stand a chance in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections, Amit Shah has outlined a detailed strategy:
- The BJP must contest a minimum of 200 seats, leaving 60 seats for Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and the remainder for smaller Mahayuti partners like RPI and RSP.
- More tickets should be given to loyal BJP workers rather than turncoats and dynastic politicians.
- Shah has urged party workers to increase voter turnout, especially in the first few hours of polling, and to focus on reaching out to disgruntled members of other parties.
However, with the Mahayuti alliance facing internal discord and a tarnished image, the BJP’s chances of retaining power in Maharashtra appear slim.
Conclusion: A Tight Race
The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections will be a close contest, with the MVA in a strong position to replicate the success they achieved before. If the opposition plays its cards right and maintains internal unity, a Karnataka-like defeat for the BJP is a very real possibility. The BJP’s current alliances, voter discontent, and leadership challenges suggest that the party faces an uphill battle to retain control of Maharashtra.
