Balochs agitation for independence seems to be dying down

The agitation of the Balochs for independence seems to be a never ending process. And by now the delusion of the people of Balochistan that was generated by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day speech on August 15, 2016 must have died down.

In this particular speech, Modi raised the issue of Pakistan’s human rights violations in Balochistan which raised absurd and false hopes in the minds of the gullible Balochs that now India would help them in gaining independence as India did in Bangladesh in 1971 (though it is impossible for military reasons for India in Balochistan).

Despite a legitimate case for the independence of Balochistan, it has not been able to achieve independence for so long because of lack of effective policies which has caused them to suffer immense atrocities and human rights violation at the hands of the State of Pakistan.

The Balochs can still achieve independence, sooner than later, if we do the following: –

1. Indian military enters J&K after ‘Instrument of Accession’ (IoA) of J&K to India was signed in October 1947 by its ruler in view of Pak invasion of J&K. But IoA of Baluchistan was signed (at gun point) in February 1948 (after Pakistan military invaded Balochistan) by its ruler who was not even authorised to sign this IoA as the Parliament (Dar-ul-Awam) has passed resolution for independence of Balochistan.
2. Hence the IoA of Balochistan to Pakistan is not worth the paper it is written on because as per an international law, the political fate of Balochistan (in view of said resolution by Dar-ul-Awam) is supposed to be decided by the people of the country through plebiscite / referendum (especially in this age of human-rights-friendly world which is already moving towards realising ‘ New horizon for mankind’)
3. Instead of trying medieval & antiquated methods for acquiring independence, the Balochs should have demanded independence through plebiscite. Fortunately, the Balochs can benefit from the case of United-J&K where also the fate of united-J&K is mandated to be decided by the IoA of J&K to India as mentioned.
4. In one sense, the Balochs are right in thinking that without outside support, they cannot attain independence. But this outside support the Balochs can easily get if they try for the realisation of ‘ Secular Democratic Federation of mini-SAARC’ in which united-J&K can be 9^th and Balochistan the 10^th member of SAARC because both united-J&K and Balochistan are bound to opt for independence during plebiscite. The Federation where all the martial subjects will be with the centre and all the civil subjects (including natural resources) will be with the member states.
5. There is only one very minor hurdle in this approach. The Kashmiris are not demanding plebiscite because they know that plebiscite will result in  independent united-J&K whereas the influential Muslim leaders (and not majority of people) of Kashmir (unlike Baloch leaders & people who want secular State) want to join theocratic Pakistan and with their handful of supporters periodically raise the slogans “Kashmir ‘banega’ (will become) Pakistan”. But this nuisance can easily be eliminated if the Balochs persuade the Kashmiris to demand plebiscite (which is the mandate of the IoA of J&K to India) by telling them that Pashtuns of KPK would want to join this mini-SAARC earlier than discriminated-against Sindh because Pashtuns have been suffering immensely by the  atrocities of the State of Pakistan. This will facilitate even Punjab part of Pakistan also to join this mini-SAARC (along with KPK & Sindh).
6. In India the main political parties of the centre namely BJP and the Congress have lost the script due to their support to two nations theory (by BJP crudely and by Congress subtly). Hence in future, only those political parties will come in or near power or will remain in power at the centre that will support one nation theory which is liked by the civil society of India.
7. It will help immensely if: – (i) The Balochs mobilise the people of J&K and Gilgit-Baltistan on the Pakistan side of LoC to persuade the people of Indian side of J&K (especially Kashmiris) to work for plebiscite in united-J&K. (ii) The Balochs arrange some seminars etc in India to tell the Indians that (a) The dual citizenship (as mention in said PCP article 3534) is the right solution for the problem of CAA / NRC, which is currently agitating India and (b) The plebiscite in Balochistan and United-J&K is in the interest of India.(iii) The Baloch organise such seminars all across Pakistan, then it will be the best.
8. The Balochs should not be unduly perturbed that in mini-SAARC, the Baloch area of Iran and Afghanistan will be left out. This apprehension is not valid because in SAARC (rather in extended-SAARC) both Afghanistan and Iran will be there. If in the USA (a country of merely ~ 330 million) number of States can be 50 then there is no reason why in extended-SAARC (a country of ~ 1.8 billion), the number of States  cannot be at least two hundred in the interest of accommodating the regional, ethnic, linguistic etc aspirations of its citizens.
9. The Balochs need not be deterred by the baseless propaganda that China may oppose the independence of Balochistan due to its stakes in CPEC and Gwadar port. But this fear is baseless because SAARC will support these projects of China and any such project of any other country in its territory which will make transportation of goods easy and cheap and which will save power which in modern world is the resources of the mankind too (and not merely of the concerned country). Only concern of SAARC will be that China should not use CPEC & Gwadar port etc for military / strategic purpose which China has already said that it will not do so.
10. The Balochs should understand two basic realities. First, India and Pakistan will agree to only win-win solution and not to any zero-sum game where one’s gain is other’s loss. Secondly, present situation in India & Pakistan is conducive for the independence of Balochistan and united-J&K through mini SAARC because: –(i)Modi Government (and Hindutva forces) could get away with Babri Masjid matter as Muslims and their leaders (out of un-Islamic fear) did not file proper review petition in SCI. But in the matters of CAA / NRC and Kashmir (where Article 370 and 35-A have been amended and repealed and where practically all political leaders & activists are in prison, but how long it can be), it will not be so.(ii)In Pakistan there is a political crisis. Its establishment brought Imran’s PTI  in power through illegitimate election by first removing from premiership and then not allowing Nawaz Shariff to contest election. Hence said mini-SAARC is the right solution for Pakistan.
11.  In addition to mobilize the Kashmiris and others (as mentioned above) it will go a long way in realising independence (for both Balochistan and united-J&K) if the Balochs take the lead in launching an NGO in the USA (registered as per law of the USA) for lobbying and gaining support for the cause of plebiscite in Balochistan and united-J&K. This NGO can carry-out demonstrations, seminars, meetings etc at various places / cities in the USA and can move and approach the Congress and its relevant Committees and US Administration and can even contact diplomats of various countries in the USA and at the United Nations and can also mobilise the influential US media. It will obviously help the cause immensely because whatever people may say (and with some justification) but there are still lots of people (including influential) in the USA who genuinely care for the human rights of the entire mankind and want to usher the world into liberal political order.

It is hoped that in the interest of peace, harmony and prosperity in the Indian subcontinent, the Balochs will follow the path of mini-SAARC through a legally expected plebiscite in Balochistan and united-J&K (also by taking the help of to-be-launched registered NGO in the USA for moving the world community including the leader of free world the USA for their legitimate and urgent cause).

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