With Chinese growth slowing down to multi-decadal low, India will lead the world steel output growth, which is expected to touch 2,000 million tonnes by the turn of 2030 clipping at 25 per cent from 2014, according to an industry body.
“World crude steel output is expected to jump by 400 million tonnes by 2030 from 1,600 million tonnes in 2014, largely supported by growth in India,” World Steel Association Director General Edwin Basson said here over the weekend.
“Future demand will be fuelled by population growth in the emerging world, processes of urbanisation and industrialisation,” Basson, who was here to attend the India Steel 2015 expo, said.
The country had lost the No 3 slot to the US in 2009.
The government has set a target of trebling the steel output to 300 mt by 2025, and also eyes the No 2 slot by 2020.
The country produced 88.1 million tonnes in FY 2014.
Driven by the rapid growth in China, which is the largest consumer and producer of steel now, the global steel industry doubled, from 800 million tonne in 2004 to 1,600 million tonne in 2014.
China contributes to over 47 per cent of the world’s steel production, but its share “is declining,” he said.
“The future of the Indian steel industry is bright,” Basson said, adding the current slowdown in production globally has led to excess capacity in all major producing countries, and as a result “the adjustments in raw material markets have also been substantial.”
He cautioned that “this is not a short-term phenomenon, and we can expect raw-material prices to be low for much longer, potentially the next five years at least.”
“China has reached the upper end of the growth curve, and is seeing a real slowdown,” he added.
Though he ruled out another growth phase such as the Chinese-driven one in the past decade, he sees the demand growing primarily driven by India.