The Kashmiri leaders are rightly saying that the ill-conceived act of Government of India (GoI) – to amend Article 370, repeal Article 35-A of the Constitution and to convert the State of J&K (having Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh regions) into two Union territories one of Jammu & Kashmir regions and other of Ladakh – is aggression by GoI which is the result of confusion of most of Indians who do not understand that as per Instrument of Accession (IoA) the State of J&K is not like any other State of India and is not an integral part of India rather its fate will be decided by plebiscite as mandated by IoA.
The major part of Indians (which is supporting said ill-conceived act of GoI) does not understand that the link between India and J&K is not through Article 370, 35-A but through IoA as these Articles came in existence much after IoA. The purpose of Article 370 and 35-A are two folds.
- To ensure outsiders-free J&K to facilitate free & fair plebiscite (which has not taken place so far because of the dereliction of GoI and GoJ&K) and
- Pending plebiscite, for the purpose of managing J&K politically, administratively and legally ONLY as per the wishes of the people of J&K as expressed by-laws made by legislature of J&K and as per the laws and Constitution of India applicable to J&K to the extent consented by the legislature of J&K. Therefore repeal (of Article 35-A and 370 of the Constitution) is unconstitutional, usurpation and against the spirit & letter of IoA.
This ill-conceived decision of GoI has created a crisis where J&K can become another Bangladesh as mentioned at https://www.pakistanchristianpost.com/opinion-details/3399. The politically naive Indians are thinking that J&K cannot become independent because Pakistan cannot wage conventional war against more powerful India for the ‘liberation’ of J&K but this complacency of Indians is not correct rather suicidal, as explained below:-
- Hindu majority India has always under-estimated Islam hence India was partitioned in 1947 in which ~ 1 million were killed and ~ 20 million were displaced in the most gory situation. Similarly now also India is underestimating Islam because it does not understand that all other religions have two sanctioned coercive power namely military and police but Islam has one more, the Jihadis.
- After UN declaration of 1948 for plebiscite, Pakistan did not vacate PoJK (a precondition for the purpose of free & fair Plebiscite) because it feared that under influence of Sheikh Abdullah the J&K will opt for India. India did not take military action for forcing Pakistan to vacate PoJK because Nehru (the follower of the doctrine of non-violence of his mentor Gandhi) did not want to use military (that was the reason Nehru did not use superior air-force of India during 1962 Indo-China war and instead preferred humiliation).
- The people of J&K did not have the adequate military power to force independence in 1949 hence Sheikh Abdullah sounded many countries to support the independence of unified J&K but it did not materialize hence Nehru put Sheikh Abdullah in jail. Now also Muslims of J&K do not have the adequate military power to force independence (because now also Kashmiris do not want to go to either Pakistan or to India hence did not file a petition in J&K High Court as mentioned at https://wadikinews.com/public-interest-writ-petition-under-article-226-of-the-constitution-with-respondents-i-the-union-of-india-ii-the-state-of-jk/ ). But this ill-conceived act of GoI has changed the entire situation.
- Now after said an ill-conceived act of GoI (if not stopped by Court) the non-Muslim regions of Ladakh and Jammu can & will easily be made Hindu majority areas by population transfer through economic policies and activities. The Kashmir region can & will also be gradually made Hindu majority area by well-guarded Hindu settlements, etc. and this is well understood by Pakistan & Muslim Kashmiris which Islam will never tolerate given the present scenario in communally-jingoist India which is increasingly becoming hostile to Muslims.
- This will constrain Pakistan to reconcile with the idea of ‘Independent J&K’ and with the help and assistance of China (who will not tolerate increased presence of Jihadi militants and terrorists in J&K due its vulnerability in its Muslim area of Xinjiang province) and from most of the Muslim countries, NUCLEAR Pakistan will highly likely wage conventional war against NUCLEAR India to ‘liberate’ J&K (as India did in 1971 in Bangladesh) which is bound to force the international community too to recognize J&K as independent country.
- The advantage of more numbers of military personnel with India can be nullified (i)- By Pakistan by battle-hardened Jihadis from all over the world (including from Al-Qaeda and ISIS) and (ii)- By China by detaining large number of Indian military personnel at Indo-China border by heating up entire Indo-China border especially in N-E where China claims Arunachal Pradesh as its territory and India’s vulnerability at Doklam from where China can cut-off entire N-E from India. — As far more military resources with India these can be provided by China and many Muslim countries to Pakistan. Hence Pakistan can go for making the whole of J&K independent through the prolonged conventional war of ‘liberation’ [Ladakh region (being claimed as its territory by China) can in a deal later-on be given to China by Pakistan as was done in case of Aksai-Chin]. Only one road to Kashmir from India (which can be cut-off by Pakistan with the help of China) will make this task of Pakistan easier.
- There is a saying that one should first not the take-on enemy but the supporter of the enemy. The USA is depending to a great extent on the support of India in the Pacific region against China. Presently the USA is harassing China (rightly or wrongly which does not matter) through Hong Kong & Taiwan. Hence it is even more ominous for non-Muslims of unified J&K. Islam and China, as mentioned above, have a strong motivation for converting unified J&K into another Bangladesh. The Islam will have another Muslim country on the world map (after-all unified J&K is Muslim majority area and even Jammu was Muslim majority at the time of accession) and China will, later on, assimilate Ladakh which China is claiming as its own territory and it will also solve the problem with CPEC which India creates for China. As far non-Muslims of Jammu & Ladakh region they will either leave it (as Kashmiri Pandits did in Kashmir valley and as Buddhists did when they came from Tibet to India with Dalai Lama) and will go in India during the transition of their region into another Bangladesh or will be forced to leave it as happened to Hindus in Pakistan and Bangladesh after partition in 1947.
Let us hope that this J&K crisis which has been triggered by said ill-conceived acts of Government of India will be averted by High Court J&K / Supreme Court of India (by quashing these ill-conceived act of GoI) in the proceedings of the writ petitions which have been filed by Kashmiris in these Courts.
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