The Maharashtra Assembly elections this year are shaping up to be one of the most fiercely contested in the state’s history. With six major political parties and two key alliances striving for power, the outcome is highly uncertain, and it is difficult to predict which party will emerge victorious. The results will not only decide the future of Maharashtra but could also have significant implications for national politics.
Since the Congress government came to power in Maharashtra in 1990, the state has witnessed six assembly elections, and in each of them, no single party has been able to secure a clear majority. Coalition governments have been the norm, and this trend is expected to continue in the upcoming elections. Maharashtra, home to India’s financial capital Mumbai, has been politically volatile in recent years, with three different chief ministers and three distinct governments over the past five years.
The major players in this election are the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Shiv Sena (Shinde group), the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction), and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). The state has experienced a major rift between Shiv Sena factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde, as well as a split in the NCP. The Election Commission has recognized both factions, granting them separate party symbols and identities.
On one side, the BJP is leading an alliance that includes the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) under the banner of the Maha Yuti, while on the other, the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction), and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) are united in the Maha Aghadi alliance. The two alliances are in a fierce battle for dominance, with each trying to outmaneuver the other in terms of support from voters.
Veteran leaders like Sharad Pawar, who is 84, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with key figures such as Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, and Ajit Pawar, are all actively campaigning in the state, aiming to consolidate their support base. Eknath Shinde, a former Shiv Sena leader, has become a key figure in Maharashtra’s political landscape after his rebellion in July 2022. His leadership and the subsequent shift in allegiance to the BJP have sparked intense political battles within the state.
Uddhav Thackeray’s faction has accused Shinde and his 40 rebel MLAs of betrayal, claiming that Shinde’s defection is a blow to the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray. The Shiv Sena’s split has added a personal dimension to the political battle, with Uddhav’s supporters focusing on themes of loyalty and betrayal. Shinde, on the other hand, has emphasized his commitment to Balasaheb Thackeray’s Hindutva ideology and his efforts to restore Shiv Sena’s glory in the state.
The rivalry between Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray has escalated since Shinde’s rebellion, with both leaders keen to prove their legitimacy and leadership. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Shinde’s faction, contesting under the Shiv Sena banner, won seven seats out of 15 contested, outperforming Uddhav’s faction, which failed to secure a significant victory. Now, Shinde faces the challenge of proving his mettle once again in the assembly elections.
Uddhav Thackeray, for his part, is working to regain the support of key vote banks. In the Lok Sabha elections, Muslim voters played a significant role in bolstering Uddhav’s alliance, and the same will be crucial in the assembly elections. However, it remains to be seen whether this vote bank will continue to favor the Uddhav-led Shiv Sena, especially as the political dynamics shift.
Thackeray’s appeal as a leader who faced personal and political setbacks following his government’s collapse has not yielded significant gains thus far. His efforts to portray himself as a victim of betrayal and highlight his leadership during the COVID-19 crisis did not translate into electoral success in the Lok Sabha elections. Whether this narrative will resonate with voters in the upcoming assembly polls remains to be seen.
The outcome of this election is critical for the future of the Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray’s political career. A defeat could severely diminish his influence over the party, and with it, the Thackeray family’s longstanding dominance in the party’s decision-making. Meanwhile, Eknath Shinde’s faction appears to have solidified its position, with Shinde’s hands-on leadership and his accessibility to party workers earning him significant support.
For the Uddhav faction, maintaining its relevance will be a challenge. While the Thackeray family continues to wield considerable influence, it is clear that the political landscape is rapidly changing. With the fate of key leaders and parties on the line, the November 20 polls will likely determine not only the future of Maharashtra’s politics but also the direction of the state’s power dynamics in the years to come.
