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Will BJP’s ‘Banwas’ end in UP?

[dropcap]V[/dropcap]ishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) leader Pravin Togadia has made a big announcement in connection with the Ram Temple agitation and UP assembly polls. He said VHP will not launch any agitation for construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya till assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh next year. However, Togadia said that the VHP is committed to construction of the Ram Temple. BJP President Amit Shah also had announced long back that the grand temple at Ayodhya would be built in near future. Keeping an eye on elections, right wing leaders are showing some maturity irrespective of their organisation.

Even, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked the party workers to realm the goodwill the party received in 2014 till the next general elections. The Prime Minister asked the party leaders to preserve its 11 crore members. Modi also gave tips to party leaders to change in accordance with technology, time and age, keeping in mind the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh which are due next year. Modi drizzled his heart telling his party workers, how important these elections are for the party. On the other hand, the approach of Amit Shah was the same. He trained his guns at the state’s Samajwadi Party government and raised the issue of alleged “migration” of Hindus from Kairana, in Shamli district, and the recent Mathura violence.

Shah also targeted the Samajwadi Party and the Congress in his speech. He attacked the SP government over the “atmosphere of violence” in Uttar Pradesh. Shah also directed his ire against the Congress, saying its politics of obstructionism had become the hallmark of the main opposition party in the last two years. This is also the reason for the weakening of the Congress. Shah pointed out that the two years of the Modi government have been corruption-free, while he totally ignored Vyapam scam in MP, Chikki, CCTV, Irrigation, Khadse’s corruption in Maharashtra. Conveniently, he was overlooking BJP’s stained leaders who are neck-deep in corruption. He also asserted that the NDA government’s two years have been exceptionally good and a lot has been achieved. Whatever BJP leaders can claim but the fact cannot be ignored that people are unhappy with the ruling party. Still, they are confident that the party will return to power in Uttar Pradesh next year after 14 years of ‘Banwas’ and at the Centre in 2019. Rajnath Singh was the last chief minister of BJP in Uttar Pradesh in 2002. Since then BJP never rose to power in the state.

BJP is tirelessly boasting its two years of achievements. However, party’s staunch supporter yoga guru and Patanjali’s owner Baba Ramdev has expressed his dissatisfaction over black money issue. The yoga guru, however, praised the central government for carrying out development projects and its zero tolerance policy on corruption. In December last year, Ramdev had spoken out against NDA government’s initiatives to bring back black money from foreign countries but hoped that it will soon act on the issue.

The demolition of Babri Masjid and Godhra, both incidences are BJP’s weakness and black money is another challenge. All these crucial issues might create troubles for BJP in future.

Anyway, the survey has predicted that BSP is likely to win185 seats in the 403-member assembly. BSP was reduced to 80 seats in 2012 polls while it came to power with clear majority in 2007 assembly elections with 207 seats. However, today’s scenario would be in her favour if she doesn’t do any unpardonable mistake. SP, on the other hand, is keen on repeating its performance of 2012, but the party is witnessing a wane in its popularity. The survey has found that Samajwadi Party may win only 80 seats (228 in 2012) this time around. In last year’s Lok Sabha polls, it won only five of the 80 seats in the state. The BJP swept the state by winning 73 seats along with allies. The survey suggested that the BJP+ is likely to bag 120 seats but that would not be enough to form the government in UP. Uttar Pradesh is also crucial for BJP because after being routed in Bihar, it cannot afford to lose the heartland state. Despite attaining successes in Gujarat in 2014 and then Bihar in 2015, master poll strategist and public health professional, Prashant Kishor, does not seem to be doing wonders for Congress. The party with RLD is seen winning mere 13 seats while others in fray to bag five.

Maya ‘Best Suited CM’

BSP Chief Mayawati (31%) has emerged as best suited to become the next CM of UP closely followed by Akhilesh Yadav (30%) of SP. Rajnath Singh (18%) of the BJP was a distant third. According to the respondents, unemployment, inflation, corruption and poverty are going to be the four most important election issues in the forthcoming Vidhan Sabha Elections.

Performance of the Samajwadi Government since last four years has been rated just below average with a mean score of 2.9. Thirty two per cent respondents gave a rating of Very Good or Good compared to 36% who rated the government performance as Poor or Very Poor. However, Muslim voters feel it is well above average. Similar responses were received when asked about the performance of the UP Chief Minister. The current SP Government led by Akhilesh Yadav has been seen as more corrupt compared to the previous Mayawati led BSP government in UP. This perception is higher among the Hindus and BPL respondents. Mayawati is known for keeping strict law and order situation, BJP is known for rioting and ignoring Muslims and Dalits. SP has failed to win people’s confidence. Modi’s popularity is not enough to win in UP, as BJP’s ministers never gave any access to people since they won with massive majority.

Looking at the present scenario, BJP might be trying hard, but it’s Mayawati who will gain in UP.

 (Any suggestions, comments or dispute with regards to this article send us on

Dr Vaidehi Taman
Dr Vaidehi an Accredited Journalist from Maharashtra is bestowed with Honourary Doctorate in Journalism, Investigative Journalist, Editor, Ethical Hacker, Philanthropist, and Author. She is Editor-in-Chief of Newsmakers Broadcasting and Communications Pvt. Ltd. for 11 years, which features an English daily tabloid – Afternoon Voice, a Marathi web portal – Mumbai Manoos, monthly magazines like Hackers5, Beyond The News (international) and Maritime Bridges. She is also an EC Council Certified Ethical Hacker, Certified Security Analyst and is also a Licensed Penetration Tester which caters to her freelance jobs.

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