Gujarat has become the battle ground for 2017 elections; BJP is trying its best to retain the power in the state and Congress with its alliance making every effort to bounce back. Modi’s Gujarat has seen lots of shift since he left the state for capital. Retaining power is now biggest ego issue than anything else. Many political pundits have predicted that the mandate for Gujarat can change the vision for 2019 elections in India. If you recollect the strategy that Modi spent three days in Varanasi before the final phase of the Uttar Pradesh election earlier this year, many saw it as a sign of anxiety. He, however, told a party leader, “Election is a battle, and I am the commander”. He always remained BJP worker than the PM of this country. His priority is BJP first and then the nation. He is one person or campaigner in BJP who can fetch the votes for party and without him the party has nothing to flaunt. Including his election promises, everything is fake and false. Still the party is surviving with majority because of poor leadership in opposition, weak opponents and the anger that has been created against Congress all these while.
Recent rallies of Rahul Gandhi has seen a large crowd, however how many of them will translate into votes is a question, perhaps if you look at UP and other state elections they could hardly manage to save their face and existence. People may be irritated but are still expected to vote for the BJP. Congress never succeeded in ensuring that anger translating into votes for them. Also it is said that the party loses half of battle when tickets distribution happens due to infighting. There are group of leaders in Congress in race for the CM’s post. Rahul Gandhi and Ashok Gehlot may have to do this with extreme care if Congress wants to have a shot at winning. This time the addition to BJP in Gujarat is Hardik Patel, the 25-year-old leader of the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti, a state-wide forum driving the movement to demand Other Backward Classes’ status for the land-holding Patidar or Patel caste. He is leading a campaign against the ruling BJP. Patel makes strong statement that he will not let BJP retain power in state. Let’s see how this young chap combats BJP’s big shark Amit Shah’s strategies.
This time Congress appears to be ahead in social media campaigning with ‘vikas gando thayo che’ being a popular paraphrase in social media. However, BJP has also countered them well after some delay and this time social media may not have much effect. BJP’s old guys, who campaigned for Modi in 2013 and 2014, have joined Congress social media and they are using the same strategy against BJP, what they used against Congress those days. If you are on social media network you will find may morphed videos of Modi and his leaders getting circulated. Congress has gone very aggressive and strong on this platform, many equations are really changing. Ahmed Patel’s regain has also boosted the moral of Congress. On the other hand, BJP’s CM Vijay Rupani is failing to create expected impact in last year this election again would be fought in the name of Namo. Gujarati people still loves him. It being the home state of Namo and Amit Shah and they are leaving no stone unturned in winning this. Both of them know Gujarat politics inside out and also has a great network. The years of development by Modi especially in urban places will have a huge impact. People are still wary of Congress and their Muslim-appeasement and frequent riots during Congress rule. Congress even tried to shed this image with Rahul Gandhi visiting various temples in Gujarat, but it may fail to have much impact.
Still it will not be easy for BJP to win even though opinion polls giving them easy majority. However, if BJP wins the election that would be with lesser seats than last elections. Forty per cent of OBC population can create a huge difference in this election with their newly emerged leader Alpesh Thakor joining Congress. He has a large influence on the OBC voters. Whether they will continue voting for Namo or heed Thakor, this could change the narrative of this election. Patidars are of the most influential caste in Gujarat politics. Hardik Patel though has not joined Congress, has made his anti-BJP stance clear and may urge Patidars to vote for Congress. The recent Patidar agitation has made Patidars at arms vs BJP with Hardik Patel emerging as a strong leader. Moreover, choosing Vijay Rupani as CM bypassing Nitin Patel has also not gone down well with Patidars. Last time Patidars changed their voting stance; Congress was overthrown and has never again been able to form government. BJP on their part has succeeded in breaking the leadership of PAAS with few of them joining BJP. Also Hardik Patel’s actions have resulted in his drift from the popular Patidar group Sardar Patel Group (SPG) breaking unity of Patidars. Recent incidents of thrashing Dalits have not gone down well with the community. They had also started an agitation against BJP with Jignesh Mevani emerging as their leader, who also has made his anti-BJP stance clear. However, with only 7 per cent population and they being majorly Congress vote-bank it may not affect much. The core vote-bank of BJP is unhappy with the party due to demonetisation and GST. Especially textile industry is agitating against central government from long time. So there will definitely be a vote swing, but I doubt it would be a larger swing because traders know that BJP would be more business friendly than Congress. The BJP, under Modi and Shah, has consistently used power to expand power. It controls dairy cooperatives, self-help groups and rural banks. The party structure is both wide and deep; Shah has focused on ensuring booth committees are operational and active. Modi is known for his pragmatic leadership and didn’t allow any opponent to rise. His tenure was known for good governance and development and other investment summits like Vibrant Gujarat and Plastic India. But lot has changed after he left Gandhinagar. Even BJP is facing the paucity of leadership. Anandiben was not as pragmatic as Modi. But she is known for her social sector reforms. Legacy of Modi is a blessing and boon for BJP in Gujarat. Vijay Rupani new Chief Minister of Gujarat is called the puppet of Modi.
Congress presence can only be felt in some rural areas and some tribal areas. Urban population doesn’t want to accept Congress due to its anti-development and pro-Muslim image. So, Congress chances are quite bleak. And finally, while they acknowledge a sense of disillusionment among a section of their own voters, BJP leaders claim that the Congress, with no credible local face, is still in no position to wrest the state from them.
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