The 2024 Maharashtra elections are set to be a pivotal moment in the state’s political history, characterized by a fierce battle for survival between the two rival factions of the Shiv Sena. On one side is the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance seeking a decisive win that could diminish the influence of Eknath Shinde, who currently leads a breakaway faction of the Shiv Sena. A victory for the MVA would not only consolidate its position but could also render Shinde politically vulnerable, potentially sidelining his faction. Conversely, a win for the ruling Mahayuti coalition, which includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, could significantly weaken the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, pushing it towards political irrelevance—similar to the fate of other regional parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) after the Modi waves of 2014 and 2019. Yet, unlike many regional narratives that have succumbed to the BJP’s dominance, the split within the Shiv Sena is a story of personal ambitions, internal strife, and betrayal. This makes the 2024 elections not just a conventional political contest but a personal and ideological face-off between the MVA and the Mahayuti.
The Shinde-led faction is relying heavily on newly implemented welfare schemes to garner support, targeting key voter bases that might be swayed by tangible benefits. However, critics from the MVA argue that these schemes may not be as effective in securing votes as the Mahayuti hopes, pointing out that they predominantly benefit communities like Muslims and Dalits—demographics not traditionally aligned with the Mahayuti’s core electorate. Uddhav Thackeray, meanwhile, is positioning his faction as the true heir to the Shiv Sena’s legacy, using the slogan of “Marathi pride” to rally his base. The MVA’s narrative paints Shinde and his supporters as “gaddars” (traitors), hoping to resonate with voters who see the split as an affront to the party’s founding principles.
This struggle for control over the Shiv Sena’s legacy has its roots in the aftermath of the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections, when the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 161 out of 288 seats. Disagreements over the Chief Minister’s post led Uddhav Thackeray to sever ties with the BJP, forming the MVA coalition with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress. Uddhav’s tenure as Chief Minister lasted for two and a half years until June 2022, when a rebellion led by Eknath Shinde—supported by the BJP—toppled his government, paving the way for Shinde to become Chief Minister. The rebellion and subsequent shift of power were not just political but deeply symbolic, as they underscored the fragmentation within a party that had been built on the charisma and vision of Balasaheb Thackeray.
The internal power struggle took a legal turn when the Election Commission recognized Shinde’s faction as the legitimate Shiv Sena, awarding it the bow-and-arrow symbol. This decision forced the Uddhav-led faction, now rebranded as Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) or SS (UBT), to adopt a new symbol, the flaming torch. The 2023 Lok Sabha elections, where the two factions ended in a near draw, highlighted the evenly matched nature of this rivalry, setting the stage for a more decisive confrontation in the upcoming state elections.
The Thackeray-led faction retains a stronghold in regions with a traditional Marathi-speaking voter base, including Mumbai, Konkan, and Marathwada. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, support from Muslim voters bolstered the faction’s standing, suggesting that Uddhav’s outreach to communities beyond the party’s core base could be a critical factor in the state polls. Meanwhile, smaller political players like RPI (Athavale) and various independent candidates are positioning themselves strategically, likely to side with the coalition that emerges victorious, making them key players in forming a stable government.
For the BJP, the 2024 elections pose significant challenges. The party’s vote share, which peaked at 42% during the height of the Modi wave in 2014, dropped to 36% in the 2019 elections due to a more fragmented opposition. Now, with a united opposition in the form of the MVA and growing anti-incumbency sentiments, the BJP must secure over 50% of the vote share to ensure a victory. A direct contest with the MVA, which combines the organizational strength of the Congress, NCP, and the SS (UBT), presents a daunting challenge for the BJP. This makes the strategy of creating internal divisions within the MVA, aiming for a three-way fight, a more feasible path to victory. In such a scenario, a consolidated 40% vote share could be enough for the Mahayuti to retain control of the state.
The political landscape is further complicated by the emergence of Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil, who has become a prominent critic of the BJP, especially targeting Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. Patil’s advocacy for Maratha reservation and his criticism of the BJP could sway a significant portion of the Maratha vote, traditionally a crucial demographic in Maharashtra’s elections. Some political observers believe that Shinde and Ajit Pawar may be strategically encouraging Jarange Patil’s stance to weaken the BJP’s standing among Marathas. If this strategy succeeds, and the Maratha vote shifts away from the BJP, it could pose a severe challenge to the ruling coalition. Conversely, a consolidation of Other Backward Class (OBC) votes in favor of the BJP could counterbalance these shifts, making the electoral outcome highly unpredictable. Meanwhile, MNS chief Raj Thackeray’s election strategy has crafted a highly strategic plan to keep both the Mahayuti and MVA alliances uncertain about his moves, both before and after the elections. He is aware that his party is unlikely to lead, but he is confident that the number of MNS MLAs elected could play a crucial role in determining which alliance ultimately comes to power.
As Maharashtra approaches the elections, the political environment remains highly fluid, characterized by frequent changes in alliances and leadership. The state has witnessed three different governments and three chief ministers in the past five years, a testament to the volatility and realignments that have shaped its politics. With two major alliances—the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition MVA—competing for power, the outcome will not only determine the political future of Maharashtra but could also have broader implications for national politics. A victory for the BJP-led Mahayuti could solidify Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s position ahead of the 2024 national elections, while a defeat could embolden opposition forces and potentially reshape the political landscape leading up to the general elections. The stakes have rarely been higher, making the 2024 Maharashtra elections a bellwether for the state and the nation.
