As Maharashtra heads towards the 2024 general elections, the state’s political stage is bustling with anticipation. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), alongside its allies, is preparing for what could be one of its most critical challenges in recent years. The Mahayuti alliance, led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, has been working hard to maintain voter confidence, but the road ahead appears fraught with obstacles.
Shinde has positioned himself as a key Hindutva leader, taking symbolic steps to reinforce his standing. Initiatives such as declaring the cow (Gomata) as “Rajmata” and giving the Marathi language elevated status have aimed to appeal to both traditional values and regional pride. While these gestures have resonated with certain segments of the population, they have not been sufficient to distract from deeper issues plaguing the state—particularly in law and order.
A recent incident in Badlapur has cast a spotlight on these governance challenges. The encounter killing of Akshay Shinde, who was accused of sexually assaulting two schoolgirls, sparked public outrage. Some hailed the action as swift justice, but others condemned it as an example of extrajudicial execution, raising concerns about the state’s commitment to due process. The episode has, once again, drawn attention to the increasing crime rate and the alarming rise in violence against women in Maharashtra, leaving the government, especially Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis—who holds the home ministry portfolio—open to criticism for failing to maintain law and order.
Adding to the BJP’s difficulties are internal party tensions. Many party members feel overlooked as the party focuses on solidifying alliances at the expense of its grassroots workers. This internal discontent could weaken the BJP’s overall election strategy. The Mahayuti alliance, which includes the BJP, Shinde’s Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is currently negotiating how to divide assembly seats for the upcoming elections. Reports suggest that the BJP is expected to secure the largest share, with 140-150 out of the 288 assembly seats, while Shinde’s Shiv Sena may contest 80 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP around 55. Smaller allies will be left with a handful of seats.
However, these seat-sharing arrangements may strain the alliance. There are rumors that Ajit Pawar’s faction may be asked to sit out of the pre-poll alliance altogether, a move that could lead to discontent and further weaken the coalition. Such internal tensions may impact the alliance’s ability to present a united front in what is expected to be a fiercely contested election.
The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance will face a strong challenge from the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP. The MVA has reason to feel confident, especially after its strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it secured 30 out of Maharashtra’s 48 seats, compared to the Mahayuti’s 17 seats. This success has invigorated the opposition as it prepares for the upcoming state elections, and seat-sharing negotiations within the MVA are expected to be intense.
Beyond Maharashtra, the state elections are part of a larger narrative that will shape the BJP’s national prospects in 2024. The party has fared well in some areas, notably Haryana, where it secured 47 seats compared to Congress’s 35, suggesting the BJP is on track for a third consecutive victory in the state. However, in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP suffered a significant setback. The Congress-National Conference alliance won a commanding 57 seats, while the BJP managed only 28 in the first regional elections held since the revocation of Article 370 and the loss of the state’s special status.
The results in Jammu and Kashmir mark a crucial shift, particularly as it was the first election since the region lost its statehood. The BJP’s inability to make substantial gains in this historically important region will weigh heavily as it seeks to maintain its political dominance nationwide.
In this context, the Maharashtra elections take on even greater significance. For the BJP, they represent not just a battle for control of one of India’s largest and most politically influential states but also a bellwether for the 2024 general elections. If the party can resolve internal discord, smooth out alliance tensions, and address critical governance challenges, it may still emerge victorious. However, failure to do so could spell trouble for the saffron party, both in Maharashtra and across the nation. The state’s election results will provide key insights into whether the BJP can weather the storm or if it will face a formidable challenge to its dominance heading into 2024.
