Predicting the outcome of the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections remains a challenging task due to the dynamic and rapidly evolving political landscape. The interplay of voter sentiment, candidate selection, and prevailing issues in the final stages of the campaign will be decisive. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has gained significant traction in various state elections, assuming its success in Delhi is premature. The February 5 election sees an intense, high-decibel, and often acrimonious campaign come to an end, with the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and BJP engaged in a fiercely contested battle. On Wednesday, Delhi’s electorate will determine whether Arvind Kejriwal secures a historic third consecutive term or if the BJP stages a remarkable comeback. For the Congress, the third contender in this triangular contest, the primary objective is to avoid another electoral humiliation and prevent a hat-trick of zeroes in the assembly.

The last day of campaigning witnessed Kejriwal, alongside Delhi Chief Minister Atishi, holding three rallies, including one in Kalkaji, to galvanise supporters. Confident in his party’s prospects, Kejriwal has asserted that AAP will secure at least 55 seats in the 70-member assembly. In previous elections, AAP dominated the political landscape, winning 67 seats in 2015 and 62 in 2020, leaving both the BJP and Congress decimated. Despite securing only three seats in 2015, the BJP managed a vote share of 32%, which increased to 38% in 2020, even as it won just eight seats. Notably, the BJP lost many seats by narrow margins. The 2025 elections bring the weight of anti-incumbency against AAP. If the BJP had projected a strong chief ministerial candidate, its vote share could have surged by an estimated 9%, bringing it to 47%, while AAP’s vote share is expected to decline from 53% in 2020 to 46% in 2025. This shift suggests that AAP’s grip over Delhi is weakening, and the outcome remains uncertain.

AAP initially sought to retain power on its own strength, outright rejecting an alliance with Congress. However, as Kejriwal progresses through his campaign, he is encountering formidable challenges. His latest political manoeuvre—writing a letter to RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat accusing the BJP of vendetta politics—signals desperation. Kejriwal now faces a multitude of obstacles, ranging from governance failures to corruption allegations, making his re-election far from certain. If AAP were to consider a Maha Vikas Aghadi-style coalition, an alliance with Congress would be the only pragmatic option given Congress’s residual influence in Delhi. However, the two parties have no organic synergy, and any alliance would be fraught with friction, making its success improbable.

The BJP, despite maintaining a consistent vote share, has repeatedly fallen short of translating it into electoral victories. In a bid to reverse this trend, the party executed an aggressive final phase of campaigning, with 22 roadshows and rallies led by key figures such as Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, BJP President J.P. Nadda, and several chief ministers from BJP-ruled states. Meanwhile, Congress, desperate for a revival after losing both vote share and seats over the last two decades, mobilised its leadership. Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi spearheaded separate roadshows in Kalkaji and Kasturba Nagar, signalling Congress’s intention to regain lost ground.

A key BJP strategy in this election has been its relentless attack on Kejriwal over the controversial “Sheesh Mahal” residence. The extravagant renovation of his official residence has put Kejriwal on the defensive. He attempted to deflect criticism by claiming that former Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit had installed 31 air conditioners in her residence, but the revelation that his bungalow has 51 ACs—along with a powerful cooling system equivalent to 50 ACs in the central hall—has severely dented his credibility. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s contrasting statement, emphasising that he has not built a house for himself but has constructed four crore homes for the poor, has further exacerbated Kejriwal’s predicament. His hastily arranged press conference denouncing these allegations reflects the growing anxiety within AAP’s ranks.

Election promises remain a crucial battleground. Kejriwal’s repeated commitments to cleaning the Yamuna, resolving Delhi’s drinking water crisis, addressing air pollution, and improving waste management have been met with scepticism. The BJP has actively highlighted AAP’s failures, exposing how similar pledges were made in previous elections without tangible results. This time, however, BJP is facing its first genuine three-cornered contest since 2014, as Congress is making serious inroads into AAP’s voter base. Should Congress succeed in eroding AAP’s support, Kejriwal’s party will find itself in a precarious position.

For the BJP to maximise its electoral prospects, it must effectively communicate the long-term consequences of AAP’s governance model. It must emphasise Kejriwal’s lack of a comprehensive vision for tackling Delhi’s pressing issues, such as air pollution, self-sustainable energy solutions, and water scarcity during peak summers. The party must also highlight AAP’s neglect of waste management and infrastructure development. However, the BJP cannot assume that voter dissatisfaction alone will be sufficient to swing the election in its favour. To secure a decisive victory, the party must present a clear, long-term blueprint for Delhi’s future while underscoring the perils of short-term populist measures.

AAP has fought its most aggressive campaign yet, recognising that an electoral defeat could spell doom for both Kejriwal and his party. The 2025 elections are not just about governance; they are a matter of political survival for AAP. However, victory will not come easily. While AAP remains a formidable force, the BJP is poised to make significant gains, ensuring a fiercely contested battle. Should AAP secure a third consecutive term, it will be a crushing blow to the BJP, highlighting its inability to dislodge Kejriwal despite years of relentless campaigning.

The campaign has witnessed sharp political exchanges over welfare schemes, corruption scandals such as the liquor policy controversy and ‘Sheesh Mahal’ saga, unemployment, water supply crises, air pollution, and healthcare promises. AI-generated spoofs, aggressive slogans, and flamboyant roadshows have defined the electioneering. AAP branded BJP as the “Bharatiya Jhootha Party” (Party of Liars) and “Gali Galoch Party” (Abusive Party), while Modi retorted by calling AAP a “disaster” and Kejriwal the “Ghoshna Mantri” (Minister of Announcements). Congress, striving for relevance, derided Kejriwal as “Farziwal” (fake) and “Chhota Recharge” (Small Recharge) of Modi.

The high-voltage campaign culminated in an intense blame game among all three major contenders. Key constituencies, including New Delhi—where Kejriwal is contesting—and Kalkaji, where Atishi is seeking re-election, have been focal points of political discourse. The BJP has relentlessly attacked Kejriwal over corruption allegations, arguing that Delhi’s voters are yearning for change and will opt for a “double-engine government”—a reference to having the same party in power at both the state and central levels.

The stakes in this election are immense, and the results will have far-reaching implications for all three parties. The verdict will determine whether Delhi remains under AAP’s rule or whether the BJP’s persistent efforts finally bear fruit. A respectable performance could mark the beginning of a long road to recovery. The stage is set for a high-stakes political showdown—Delhi’s voters now hold the key to its future governance.