During July 22 meeting between President Trump and PM Imran Khan where Trump said that PM Modi asked him to mediate (which Modi himself did not deny) on Kashmir issue, it raised huge political storm and controversy in India. However, after denial by the Government of India (through its foreign and other ministers) where GOI said that Modi never asked Trump for mediation on Kashmir, India including its opposition parties (including Congress) fell silent (and stopped demanding such denial by Modi himself) and Indians thought that things have died down.
Trump will not be at rest unless solves Kashmir problem because that is the key to the USA coming out of Afghanistan, an issue which will increase electoral prospect of Trump during coming Presidential election hence on August 1 Trump again raised this controversy by saying that it is up to PM Modi to accept mediation, as reported widely in Indian media.
Trump will commit blunder if he mediates/arbitrates on Kashmir issue (on the request of India or otherwise which is bound to bring some dismemberment of India) for the simple reason that it is bound to usher constitutionally secular India into theocratic States of ‘Hindu Rashtra’. India has failed to practice secularism due to high handedness of upper-caste Hindus and cowardice of Muslims and cowardice of ‘Dalits’ (SC and ST who are demoralised due to reservation in the name of ‘Dalits’) who combined the Muslims and Dalits (if we leave Backward castes who are also demoralised due to reservation with demoralising tag of Backwards) form ~ 40 per cent population of India hence communal Hindus erroneously think that there is only one possibility of keeping India politically viable that is through ‘Hindu Rashtra’.
These misguided communal Hindus do not understand that India was made India (of such vast territory & population governed by one political authority) by Britishers. India was splintered in over-thousand of small princely states before Britishers came to India. Even just before the independence of 1947 India (in addition to British India) had 562 princely States (under suzerainty from British Crown) which controlled ~ 40 of Indian Territory and ~ 23 per cent of its population. In a nutshell, only English as the national language and political ideology of secular democracy and proper and impartial functioning of political institutions like Executive, Parliament, independent-Judiciary, and free-Press can keep India united and politically viable, which presently Hindus seem to be utterly incapable of.
The USA has been managing global political order since World War II and despite its many failings and mistakes USA has been able to avoid World War III hence no other country knows better than USA that India converting itself into ‘Hindu Rashtra’ will be serious threat to the peace and stability of not only this region but also to global political order [especially given the fact that India is surrounded by Muslim countries and ~ 60 per cent of world Muslim population (Sunni majority) lives in and around India in Asia, East of Shia Iran].
In a nutshell USA (which is losing its dominant world power gradually and finding it difficult to protect its pacific allies) is also in need of political amalgamation of USA and Indian subcontinent (SAARC + willing Pacific Countries) which may be called (say) “United States of America and South East Asia” (USASEA) with English as national language and Hindi, Tamil, etc. as regional languages of different States in secular, democratic Federal USASEA.
The road to USASEA goes through SAARC. In Pakistan other than Punjab all the provinces are not happy with Panjabi dominant politico-economic order. Moreover, SAARC (in addition to problems with and in Pakistan) will also solve the problems of tens of millions of Bangladeshi illegal immigrants in India. However, the road to SAARC goes through first the unification of India and Afghanistan (as a precursor to SAARC) which can easily be done if India takes the lead to solve Afghanistan problem.
The sanctioned State and territory was denied by world-community to even the Caliphate of ISIS/Baghdadi. However, the world-community (including UN permanent members) first time in the history of modern human-rights-friendly civilized world is (if not stopped) going to give sanctioned State and territory to militant Jihadis (the existing Taliban etc. in Afghanistan and from Pakistan and has potential of sucking in and strengthening blood-thirsty Jihadis from rest of the world) and which will be huge problem especially for border sharing (through PoJK) neighbour India also. But even then over-smart India will not take such lead (as mentioned above) to solve the problem in Afghanistan.
In such situation, there is only one way to realise the unification of India and Afghanistan that is through the solution of Kashmir problem (not through bad policy of mediation/arbitration which Trump is envisaging which will make India a ‘Hindu Rashtra’ ) but through a plebiscite.
USA should also know that Hindu majority India will never solve Kashmir problem because it cannot live with Muslims (what to talk of Muslims of PoJK it is finding difficult to even live with Muslim Kashmir) and will not allow (due to domestic political pressure) any part of J&K to go with Pakistan at-least in theory (though practically substantial part of J&K, the PoJK is with Pakistan for the last 70 years). Hence, India will keep on talking about ‘Shimla Agreement of 1972’ about Kashmir being a bilateral issue with Pakistan. Though during last 47 years India has not cared to talk to Pakistan seriously for Kashmir solution and Kashmiris continue to suffer as has been mentioned in the recent report of UN-OHCHR and as Trump also said during July 22 meeting with Imran about suffering and lack of peace in Kashmir.
It is not at all difficult for the USA (maybe through some international human rights NGOs) to:-
(i)- Mobilise some people in the Indian side of J&K (especially in Kashmir valley) to file this writ petition in J&K High Court in person (as said online writ petition does not seem to have been admitted by J&K High Court) for the plebiscite and then in Supreme Court of India in an appeal if necessary and
(ii)- Mobilise some people in PoJK to file writ petition in High Court of PoJK (and then in Supreme Court of Pakistan if necessary) by attaching the certified copy of said writ petition in J&K High Court praying from said Pakistan High Court that Government of Pakistan should be directed to be ready for this plebiscite especially by ensuring that non-citizens of unified J&K are removed from PoJK before this plebiscite.
Such unified J&K (free from outsiders for carrying out plebiscite) will be easier in the Indian side of J&K because outsiders are not there due to Article 370 and 35-A of Indian Constitution. In PoJK it will be little difficult because not only Pakistanis but Chinese are also there but then USA should be able to ensure outsiders-free PoJK through UN or otherwise through dialogue on the table with concerned parties or militarily if necessary.
As mentioned above in view of the fact that the USA also needs USASEA (USA + SAARC + SEA) as vice versa, the USA should also keep in mind that India (the largest member of SAARC) is not a pauper country rather it can recover Rs ~ 1,000 Lakh Crore ($ ~ 15 Trillion) from about one million tax evaders, which ($ ~ 15 Trillion) all the US Governments (since their existence in 1776) have not seen in one time. This huge State-capital can bring economic progress in USASEA.
It is hoped that USA shall bring desired paradigm shift, as mentioned above, in its foreign policy and shall come out of Afghanistan through the solution of Kashmir problem which will facilitate unification of India and Afghanistan as a precursor to SAARC and which will ultimately culminate into USASEA in the interest of peaceful, just and prosperous global political order.
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