There are many factors that differentiate 2014 from 2019. I will not share the popularity of Modi, his appeal etc. As elections are ten months away, things and perceptions can change in any direction. Hence, this prediction will be entirely based on the numerical balance due to alliances, possibilities of repetition of 2014 and the general trend in assembly elections.
Things that will not go entirely in favour of BJP:
In 2014, Congress was at its nadir in terms of perception. Not that it has got better but that time people had anger that may have vanished in the last 4-5 years.
Then there are first-time voters who have not seen the negativity of 2014, so they will be a bit neutral towards Congress. There will be anti-incumbency against the Modi Government. NDA parties have shifted post and thus, in few places, the NDA and the BJP are likely not going to do well.
BJP exhausted all seats in Rajasthan, MP, Gujarat, Delhi, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Uttrakhand and Himachal in 2014. So these states together will give fewer seats.
In UP, BJP is not likely to repeat the 2014 scenario.
What may go in favour of BJP:
- People still do not see anyone as a competitor against Modi.
- No strong opposition alliance.
- No scam in the last four years that have set narrative against the Government.
- New alliances in other states like YSR and TRS.
Will Modi Magic return?
To win a majority of seats in the upcoming election is a tall order. Can Narendra Modi do it ? It is a fact that the victory of BJP in 2014 was entirely due to Narendra Modi.
It was his connect with the public, his manner of addressing the issues facing the nation and experience as Chief Minister of Gujarat which made people make their choice in favour of BJP. BJP rode on the Modi Magic. Will there be magic again ?
Narendra Modi is still adored by the people. His government has delivered on some of the promises and other actions are on to resolve major policy issues. He enjoys the public trust and may lead his party to another glorious victory in 2019.
I can list out a whole list of achievements, but elections are not won or lost on achievements and performance. Otherwise Sh. Atal Bihari Vajpayee government would not have lost in 2004. I recently went to Japan and Germany. The first thing they told me was,” You have a great and able Prime Minister”. That’s when you feel proud of being an Indian!
Modi should be given time:
I don’t think Modi is infallible or the ‘best politician ever’. But given every other sickening alternative, I sure as hell hope Modi wins in 2019. Narendra Modi will independently win a big majority, even higher than his landslide victory in 2014. Unlike how certain sections of the compromised media, talk about the massive electioneering of various opposition parties in 2019 – there is no coalition as of now. Moreover, what the Congress ruined in 60 years, it is unfair to give the Modi Government only 5 years to change it. We need to give him at least 25 more years to see a concrete change. This is because:-
- Narendra Modi continues to be very popular among the Indian youth. Even in Karnataka, the BJP won all of its votes from the youth, the largest population mix in the state. He continues to have high approval rates.
- After four years of his rule, the economy is bolstering at a phenomenal rate. Inflation has been contained. Fiscal deficits have plummeted to its lowest and India is recognised as a major investment decision. It has received the highest amount of FDI since 2014.
- Modi has electrified more than 14,000 villages in India.
- India has jumped 23 ranks in the Ease of Doing Business Report to 77 on account of the massive reforms of the government.
- Stock markets have seen record highs and investors have become very optimistic about the economy.
- The cabinet of ministers of the Modi Government, are very educated and hardworking. Every year, their work has been closely monitored and supervised by Narendra Modi, himself!
- Narendra Modi has retained the integrity of the PMO office and has effectively organised the bureaucrats.
- He has united all the Hindus under one umbrella and gave all Muslims, Christians and others a national equality law.
- Employment has exponentially expanded during his tenure. The increased pace of road construction has increased jobs to 1.1 million.
- He has fostered and supported an enormous startup culture, which has led to a surplus of employment and massive revenue generation.
- Demonetisation helped to raise more taxes and cut down the menace of black money to a considerable extent. It also crushed stone pelting and terrorist activities in the Line of Control (LoC). Even recently, when many terrorists killed our soldiers during the Eid Ceasefire, Modi Government launched a massive anti-terrorist operation eliminating several terrorists and cutting its stock of funding.
- He has heavily pushed digital transactions, which has invoked more transparency in the economy and has cut down hidden costs, which saved our tax paying money.
- He endorsed India, on the global platform. He is currently the world’s third most powerful leader, even more powerful than Donald Trump or Theresa May. He became the first leader to fight for Kulbhushan Jadhav, who was kidnapped by the Pakistani Army. He took the case to the International Court of Justice – something which the Congress didn’t do when Sarabjit Singh was captured by the Pakistani Army and killed.
- He created a common national market with the GST, which helped to uniformatise transactions and create a more internationally affiliated tax system.
- He responded very concretely against Pakistan’s terrorist activities in the LOC, by conducting surgical strikes. This heavily curbed terrorist activities and burned down so many terrorist camps.
Despite all predictions, only time will say whether Narendra Modi will return with flying colours or Rahul Gandhi will soar high. For the time being, we can only keep our fingers crossed and hope India rests on able shoulders.