There are many masters and many minds in today’s politics; NCP leader Praful Patel already declared that Sharad Pawar would become the Prime Minister in 2019. One of the Congress leaders from Karnataka claimed that the party is regaining the faith of the common man because of the Modi government’s “anti-farmer policies. Congress leaders see Rahul Gandhi as future PM for 2019, but opposition at large even sees Mamata Banerjee as potential candidature for PM post. If Congress makes it in Gujarat and Arunachal Pradesh then there are chances that the party will make it somehow, at least its lost glory would be restored. If Lok Sabha General election results come trilateral then Sharad Pawar has a chance as his own inter party relations with other politicians is unmatched, also his political skills…though his party strength is not much … but India witnessed I. K. Gujral as a PM who was the only MP from his party. He is secular, progressive and successful administrator and one of the seasoned politicians. During his tenure as a CM of Maharashtra, he proved it beyond doubt. Pawar is one of the most intelligent politicians we have got. As far as Mamata Banerjee is concerned, I personally feel she should not aspire for PM’s post and she should continue retaining Bengal.
Sharad Pawar is one leader where opposition accuses him in many controversies but that’s the only worthy opposition left to tackle. As long as Congress and Rahul Gandhi are concerned, all allegations proved to be baseless. He can take a leaf out his mother Sonia Gandhi’s book, which single-handedly stopped the Vajpayee juggernaut in 2004, after crafting a stunning Congress’ return as head of the United Progressive Alliance. Stung by a series of electoral defeats and stimulating against six years of BJP government at the Centre, a proactive Sonia ventured out of 10 Janpath, and met arch enemy NCP chief Sharad Pawar, and other veterans such as DMK chief M Karunanidhi, RJD boss Lalu Prasad Yadav and CPM leaders including late Harkishan Singh Surjeet, Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury, while her assistants managed the peripheral and smaller parties such as the JMM, National Conference, TRS and so on. The rest is history – UPA 1 came out of nowhere and dislocated the Vajpayee government. She made it extraordinary by ruling for 10 long years, even the defeat in 2014 wouldn’t have been possible for BJP if the Modi campaign wouldn’t be aggressive and Hazare and Ramdev wouldn’t succeed in creating anger against Congress. People are not happy with BJP, as in three years many decisions taken by government went against the people. Modi has so far failed to deliver his promises.
It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future. But we can still have a look at the numbers of 2014, break them down, and analyse what the possibilities for 2019 are. The recent win of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh is thought to have made a return to power of Narendra Modi in 2019 predictable. But now his own home state Gujarat has much to talk about future, he has already organised several rallies there. Leaving country and its affair, PM is all set to save his face and party in Gujarat. Let’s see what happens the next. Whatsoever, Modi and Shah are two shrewd players, who know how to win elections. They can go to any extent without bothering about people’s mandate. Win is all what matters the most. But for now, in Gujarat, the BJP faces an insurgency from its most loyal voter, the Patidar. In Rajasthan, there is a competent local leader in Sachin Pilot. Moreover people are not much happy with Vasundhara Raje, even staunch Hindus are against her after the ancient temple’s demolition for Metro project. Like in Punjab, which also had competent local leadership, it will be a seat-by-seat fight. Luckily for Modi, there is some space to do better in other big states. He will most likely improve his strike rate in Maharashtra, Bihar, Odisha and in West Bengal. In Maharashtra, BJP has become the state’s dominant party, surpassing the Congress, Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. Odisha and West Bengal have never seen BJP governments. However, recent local elections show that the BJP has swapped the Congress as the opposition in Odisha and it has secured a foothold in West Bengal. To some extent this is because of Modi’s overall fame but there is no guarantee that it will benefit his candidates in 2019.
Meanwhile, many Congress leaders are still suspicious about Pawar and curious if he could be trusted to be sincere about this effort, particularly after he accepted a Padma Vibhushan from the Modi government. Pawar’s ambition is no secret, but he never stood a chance in past years to become Prime Minister. But now, with Modi seeming unstoppable and even the NDA partners becoming worried that their alliance with the BJP could prove unfavourable in the future, Pawar has a fighting chance at gaining that office if he is able to put together and lead the coalition of secular forces against the BJP in 2019. His network is indeed privileged — Omar Abdullah had stayed at Pawar’s home while working in Mumbai. Biju Patnaik was a close friend of Pawar’s and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik looks upon his father’s friend fondly. Uddhav Thackeray — Balasaheb and Pawar’s friendship is legendary. Pawar is credited with persuading Mayawati to vote against the AB Vajpayee government in Parliament in 1999, leading to its fall. He has a line to both Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh and also has a lifelong friendship. Pawar is also on good terms with Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar and is known to have advised Jaganmohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh. He has always got along famously with former PM HD Deve Gowda in Karnataka. He has a good rapport with both Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu and his socialist philosophies make the Communist parties amenable to him. Everywhere else there is the Congress and he already has Rahul Gandhi in his bag!
Let’s see who makes it in 2019.
(Any suggestions, comments or dispute with regards to this article send us on feedback@www.afternoonvoice.com)
