Wining or losing elections depends on we, the voters. It depends upon literacy rate, as more literate people are aware about what’s going around us, what is better and what is worse. They usually do not get polarised in the name of casteism, religion, by following which some national parties usually wins the polls. The 2020 parliamentary elections won’t be a cakewalk for the BJP. The AAP party in Delhi gave an extraordinary performance and people are happy with the Kejriwal government. AAP is a new party. It lacks in experience, lacks in funds, lacks in big names in the party except one or two and still by standing in front of the big players like BJP-Congress they proved their mettle. Today, the AAP has earned lots of popularity and support from people. Despite the hurdles from the Central Government and other agencies, the AAP government has determinedly still managed to deliver for the people of Delhi especially for the lower and middle-class. They have done a tremendous job in the field of water, electricity, education and health which have largely benefited the public.
Moreover, the current sealing and demolition drives spearheaded by the BJP have negatively impacted its own image in Delhi. The Congress may become the main opposition party. Of course, the AAP has done a good work in the field of education and health especially mohalla clinic of international acclamation, free ride for ladies in DTC buses, underpass construction for commuters and vehicles from DND flyover to Ashram chowk, surplus revenue, improvement results in government schools, 24×7 free electricity up to 200 units and 50 per cent up to 400 units, free water up to 20000 litres, building of new roads, adding of new DTC buses, extension of the metro route, providing piped water, more than 1.4 lakh CCTVs, construction of class rooms and many more. These are the basic tasks done by the party which may boost up their voting share for further continuation of five years. Whatever Congress does in Delhi, there are very less chances for its survival in the present time. BJP has no credible leader in Delhi who can be projected as its CM face. The basic services given by AAP government are helping the lower class or the lower middle-class and the upper class but the upper class doesn’t care about these facilities. The upper middle-class is supporting Modi as they are seeing the trips and trade of Modi ji which is good but only when you have a house, electricity, water, roads etc. But this section constitutes a very little percentage in Delhi’s population and so the vote bank still lies with commoners. Looking at the overall scenario, one can see AAP winning and Kejriwal’s report card is the best example for its victory.
The spectacular victory of AAP in Delhi in 2015 was due to the total transfer of Congress votes to the AAP. BJP had retained its vote bank of 32 per cent, whereas Congress votes came down to 9 per cent which helped the AAP vote has zoomed up to a share of 54 per cent and 67 seats. In case if the Congress would have improved its share to 20 percent, the fight would have been neck-to-neck and the AAP may just scrape past. The party has done a fair job in making the life of a common man at ease. The BJP does not have a concrete agenda of how they will take things forward; they are just playing a card of hate politics and either criticising opposition or claiming the good work. The reasons behind it is that the AAP has many leaders of high integrity and the best among them is Arvind Kejriwal. After a long time, India has produced a leader of such calibre, qualification and integrity. AAP came up with innovative ideas like door step delivery of 40 important goods, 1 crore compensation to martyrs, homeguards in buses.
Delhi Assembly election is a closely contested three-dimensional political battle. The ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) of Arvind Kejriwal, the Delhi Chief Minister, has everything at stake in the Delhi Assembly election for this is the only place where it is in power. Stakes are not high for the BJP as it has failed to make a comeback in Delhi since 1998. The Congress, which formed three consecutive governments in Delhi under the late Sheila Dikshit can practically claim victory if it dampens BJP’s chances of return to power in Delhi. Despite officially saying that it is contesting to come back to power, every Congress leader in Delhi knows that their claim is unrealistic given its ground strength. Surveys too indicate that Kejriwal is taking his AAP to power for the second time but with reduced strength in the Delhi Assembly. The AAP is officially aiming to win more than 67 (its 2015 tally) of the 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly election. However, if one factors in the AAP’s performance in the Lok Sabha election, this target looks extremely ambitious. But then voters across India have shown different preferences in national and local elections. Kejriwal seems to be wary of the Modi wave and has tried not to target the prime minister in person. In many elections in the past, when Modi was made the subject of personal target, he has turned the scale in his favour. The AAP leadership including the Chief Minister has stayed away from launching personal attacks on Modi and have rather focused on showcasing their work for the public and achievements instead. The Congress is in tatters in Delhi. The district units of the party had been fighting openly till recently. The party has failed to enter into an alliance with the AAP that has noticeable support on the ground. The deal failed during the Lok Sabha election which the AAP leadership suspected would be a cakewalk for the BJP and had approached Rahul Gandhi, then Congress president for a tie-up.
The Congress’s performance in Delhi in the Lok Sabha election is said to have surprised even some within the party hierarchy. The party finished second in five of the seven constituencies pushing the AAP to a distant third. But recent surveys show that people have clear preferences for Delhi Assembly election with no regards for the Lok Sabha election trend. Still, the Congress is expected to do well in areas where anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) protests were intense. The visits by Congress leaders such as Salman Khurshid to protester’s camps have generated a lot of goodwill for the Congress particularly among Muslim voters who are dominating voters in five constituencies and may influence electoral outcome on 5-10 other seats. If the Congress actually makes inroads in such areas and manages to get some hold back in constituencies dominated by slums and unauthorised colonies, there may be a surprise in store in the upcoming Delhi Assembly election. Delhi’s electorates are sharply divided among certain categories of Purvanchalis, Punjabis, Muslims, upper caste-baniya combine and slums. They have traditionally been voters to one party or the other. The AAP broke this pattern in 2015. And one can expect the same in 2020 too.
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