If exit polls are to be believed, BJP will win both Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat assembly elections. A collective of 10 exit polls say that BJP will win 116 of Gujarat’s 182 seats, one more than they scored in the 2012 polls. The Congress, according to exit polls, will manage to get 65 seats this time in Gujarat, an improvement of four seats since 2012. Himachal Pradesh, currently ruled by the Congress, will be easily won by the BJP with 47 of the hill state’s 68 seats, according to an aggregate of eight exit polls. The Congress, these exit polls say, will only manage 22. However, the exit polls should always be taken with a pinch of salt as they often get it wrong. Moreover, it took 15 years for BJP to come to power but in three years people are done with them. Slowly, voters are returning back to Congress. Gujarat is one state where it is not very easy for Congress to come to power but the party has dented the moral of BJP and we could see our PM going all lows to make it to power.
Many of the Gujarat voters want Congress to win this year’s Gujarat Assembly Elections. Gujarat BJP’s arrogance should fade away towards real betterment. Gujarat today is not the same state under Narendra Modi’s reign as Chief Minister. Current crop needs to be thrown out once, so that fresh crop can come in. Under Modi, rest of the ministers did not matter much. Now, since Modi is not here, these people need to realise that but for performance, they are not required. Gujaratis have been enjoying a peaceful period with all basic amenities for quite some time now. They probably have forgotten that it does not happen robotically. They probably have stopped valuing it. And lot of youth do not remember the time before 1995, time since Congress has not been in power. I believe, they need an interruption in such a good state of affairs. And Congress can do it. Congress will prove that they can bolt anything: Congress in Gujarat does not have any good leader and without an able leader, they will not be able to achieve much but still Rahul Gandhi has shown all level of maturity this time. On the other hand, BJP do not have a coherent strategy, be it for business, education, agricultural or any other sector. They are just talking the usual crap, which is going to be some more Jumlas after winning the election.
Gujarat is a power surplus state and most areas receive uninterrupted power supply. Prices are high, but in return you get continuous power supply. Power outage is more like breaking news here. In rural areas, situation might not be as good but it is still better than that in almost all other states. Congress has never been trade and business friendly. However, most Gujaratis are into trading and businesses. These people need to have a first-hand experience as to how Congress can screw that sector. Let them learn what is worst: GST/Demonetisation or Congress! On the other hand, BJP is not people-friendly but they are pro-business establishments.
If at all now BJP retains power, the importance of Patidars will decrease at state level. If Congress comes to power and it will be proved that reservation cannot be granted to Patidars. In that case, Patidars will have nowhere else to go as they would have deserted BJP due to this reason and now even Congress will not be able to do it. Further, Patidars are never a Congress’s traditional vote bank. Congress vote bank comprises OBCs, SCs, STs etc. In 1980s, then Congress government successfully implemented KHAM formula. KHAM stands for Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim. You can see that Patidars are not present here. This exclusion was the reason they sided with BJP. Now, even if Congress wins with Patidars support, they will still not desert their traditional vote bank. And these vote banks are inherently conflicting. Many political pundits are citing a number of factors that would go against the BJP, but the fact remains unshaken that the BJP is going to make it to power one more time.
Inspite of having various challenges, earlier too, BJP made it to power in different states, for example the state of Maharashtra also witnessed lakhs of people rallying for Maratha reservation in the recent past. But the ruling party (BJP) emerged victorious in most of the subsequent municipal and local body elections. If Uttar Pradesh voters can cast off their caste while casting the votes, there is no chance Gujarati voters will be caught in the trap. Huge turnout for Congress’s rallies — probably the political pundits don’t understand the meaning of ‘huge turnout’. The response to Rahul Gandhi’s rallies is impressive but not huge and vibrant enough to intimidate the opposition. Even if we consider this response a huge one, by the logic of pundits, MNS should have won the Maharashtra assembly elections as Raj Thackeray pulls the largest crowd for his rallies. It is the organisational strength that matters at the end of the day. BJP has one karyakarta assigned for every ten voters. GST, Demonetisation, two measures have definitely affected the traditional voters of the BJP but, anyhow there is no chance any government can revoke GST in future. So it is a non-issue. Even if the merchants in Gujarat are expressing their concerns on television programs, they will not vote against Modi. An interesting factor to end with — Gujarat is the BJP bastion. Gujarat BJP workers are well aware that this is the battle of honour of their beloved leader. So there is no need to explicitly mention the zest with which they would have to run a relentless campaign.
All the elections contested by BJP after winning the general election in 2014, BJP had one or other cards like Modi wave in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and they tried the same in Bihar and Delhi elections but it seemed that Modi wave has faded. So, recreation of Modi wave was required to win most important election for BJP to keep Modi magic going and that was election of the largest state of UP. Currency ban was result of the BJP effort to show that Modi is fighting against the black money and this move was fruitful. But GST move is not going the way, BJP wanted and it may cost the party heavily in forthcoming election. Although Gujarat is a strong hold of BJP and defeating them at their home turf is going to be tough for opposition and entry of AAP is going to help BJP by further vote division. So, BJP would win Gujarat election with simple majority.
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