This time it was not very easy for BJP to choose the leaders for the 2019 elections; however, after the elections results in four major states, BJP was bound to go by full-proof strategy. Winning the general election in 2019 won’t be as easy for BJP as it was in 2014. BJP has certainly not done as expected in the recent past. By-polls are never the basis on which the general elections are measured. Even in these by-polls, BJP lost by less than 5 per cent in low turnout elections. However, BJP needs to know that combined opposition is mightier than the party believed it to be.
BJP reached maximum in its bastions of Uttar Pradesh (73), Bihar ( 22), Maharashtra (23), Chhattisgarh (10), Delhi (7), Goa (2), Gujarat (26), Madhya Pradesh (27), Jharkhand (12), Haryana (7), Himachal Pradesh (4), Uttarakhand (5), Rajasthan (25) — a total of 243 out of 298 which is 81.5 per cent strike rate. The party has reached its maximum in these states. It can only go down. If the opposition unites, the number may come down by at least 70 to 80 seats in these states.
In Bihar, Janata Dal (United) has started asserting itself and wants a maximum of 25 seats for itself. In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena once announced that it will contest solo but later on, they joined hands with BJP. Although, this time, the stake of Sena might be higher than BJP. TDP has severed its ties with NDA. If JD(U) and Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP) too distance themselves, there is a great danger for NDA. The only silver lining is Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) which has stated that its relation with BJP is intact. In Karnataka, Janata Dal (Secular) and Congress may give a joint fight to BJP which is tough to overcome for the saffron party. Although PM Modi’s popularity is intact, Rahul too is improving his ratings. People’s expectations were too high and delivery was not adequate with their expectations. Though there is good progress in all fields and that is better than the UPA regime, people tend to forget the past quickly. Apart from Rahul Gandhi, this time, even his sister Priyanka has entered politics. Besides, many other stalwarts have joined Congress. If we look at the broader picture, Congress is getting revived.
When it comes to riots and caste equations, Congress sponsored violence in the name of Dalit Andolan and has made things worse for BJP.
BJP is in power in 21 states which send 328 seats. NDA has 278 seats which is 84 per cent of the total number of seats. BJP’s resilience to retain the vote share and seats are very high in the general elections. All their unity can only dent BJP’s strength marginally. At most, the party may lose 50 to 70 seats. Still, BJP will be getting anywhere around 220 and NDA around 250. If NDA gets 250, the opposition has no chance in forming the government. Modi is still at the forefront as the most admired figure with an acceptance rating above 50 per cent.
BJP has the best booth level committee that has made the party very strong at the grassroot level. It has extended its influence to new areas of Northeast, West Bengal, and Odisha. In Northeast, the party is in an unassailable position. In WB and Odisha, it is occupying the second position. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the party is expected to enter into an alliance with YSR Congress Party and JanaSena Party of Pawan Kalyan. If it happens, it becomes a formidable combination. In Tamil Nadu, BJP is expected to ally with AIDMK. In Kerala, it may give a good fight though it is in contention only in two or three seats. Hence, the opposition unity will be challenged in all these states. There is every possibility of BJP alone scoring 65 seats out of 190 seats. Hence, all the loss in other cow belt states will be made good in these states.
In Karnataka, even if JDS and Congress come together, its effect will be restricted to only 12 seats of old Mysore, areas. In all the other five regions, JDS does not have any influence. Hence, BJP will face combined opposition only in nine seats. There is every possibility of BJP repeating 2014 or increasing marginally. People have previous experience of such United Fronts. The opposition is coming together on a single premise of hatred towards PM Modi which is not acceptable to the people at large.
BJP has absolute control over 21 states. Last time, such absolute control over states was witnessed 25-five years back during 1993 when Congress was in power in 16 states. Because of this, BJP has full control over police, government machinery, CBI, etc., which can be efficiently used to offset the advantages of the coming together of the opposition.
BJP should secure relationships with the present alliance partners. Amit Shah is more accommodative. Hence, he can retain the leading ones of JDU, SJP, and SS. Also, the party should take in new partners of YSRCP, JanaSena party, and AIADMK as the party needs to extend its influence in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu. They should also try to attract smaller parties into NDA in Kerala, Odisha, and West Bengal.
Since there is no alternative to PM Modi and Modi wave is still solid, BJP is the only party which has any chance of forming the government. The opposition all together will not cross 180. BJP under Amit Shah and his strategies will deliver the desired results. Narendra Modi has not lost an election as the CM and will not lose an election as the PM as well.
In 2014, people went against Congress because of scams and poor plans implemented during UPA-2 and also we can’t forget the similar Modi wave. In these five years, BJP emerged as the largest political party in the world. There are pros and cons for both BJP and Congress in different states. However, there are many factors that are going to benefit BJP such as Absence of Competitive Opposition against the NDA, Rahul Gandhi being not a perfect PM candidate, and BJP’s newly established roots in Goa, Bihar, and other states by the coalition. Moreover, the split in Congress party as many MLA and leaders are quitting the party and joining BJP. In the end, the rule of the election game is very simple: Gain a majority and voila, you are declared as the winner of 2019 Lok Sabha elections and we all know this is surely possible for BJP!
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