As Haryana gears up for the Legislative Assembly elections on October 5, 2024, the political landscape is charged with a mix of hopes, challenges, and uncertainties. Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress are putting their best foot forward, having released their manifestos and unleashed their star campaigners. The stakes are high for both, with the Congress riding on the momentum from its performance in the 2024 general elections, eager to make a comeback after a decade out of power. Meanwhile, the BJP, after ruling the state for the past 10 years, faces the uphill battle of anti-incumbency and unrest from various sectors, including farmers, wrestlers, and Agniveer protests.
The Congress, buoyed by its national-level success earlier this year, hopes to turn the tide in its favour and wrest power from the BJP. However, it faces a tough road ahead, as the BJP’s core strategy hinges on exploiting divisions within the opposition and rallying smaller parties and independents to fracture the anti-BJP vote. The BJP’s internal struggles are evident, with the collapse of the BJP-JJP alliance in March 2024, which led to the resignation of Manohar Lal Khattar and the appointment of Nayab Singh Saini as the new Chief Minister. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s hold on Haryana weakened, losing five of its 10 seats to Congress. The political instability was further highlighted in May 2024 when the withdrawal of support by three independents left the BJP leading a minority government.
This political fragility has set the stage for a highly unpredictable election. The last two state elections in 2009 and 2019 resulted in marginally fractured mandates. In 2009, Congress formed the government with the help of independents and smaller parties, while in 2019, the BJP secured power through its alliance with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP). However, the landscape in 2024 appears even more fragmented, with several smaller parties vying for influence.
Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, now contesting in alliance with Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (ASP), is confident of emerging as a key player in a potentially hung assembly. Chautala predicts a fractured mandate similar to previous elections and aims to secure enough seats to play kingmaker again. However, the JJP faces challenges on multiple fronts. The party’s core voter base, particularly the Jat community, is disillusioned with the party’s post-poll alliance with the BJP in 2019, which is threatening its ability to repeat its success of winning 10 seats. The alliance with ASP is an attempt to appeal to young Dalit voters, but it remains to be seen if this will counterbalance the losses from the Jat vote.
Adding to the complexity is the Indian National Lok Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party (INLD-BSP) alliance, which is attempting to recover lost ground by channeling the anger of the Jat community and securing a portion of Dalit votes, thanks to its tie-up with the BSP. Meanwhile, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), emboldened by its governance model in Delhi, is also trying to make inroads in the state by fielding a few rebels. AAP’s entry could further split the anti-BJP vote, complicating the dynamics of the opposition.
Historical data indicates that Haryana’s elections have often been closely contested. In the 2019 election, 53 seats were decided by margins where the third-placed party’s votes exceeded the margin of victory, a pattern that could repeat in 2024. A total of 1,051 candidates are contesting in 2024, with an average of 11.7 candidates per seat, lower than the previous elections. However, the high number of contestants and the involvement of smaller parties and independents mean the possibility of a hung assembly looms large once again.
For the BJP, survival hinges on its ability to mitigate the impact of anti-incumbency and protests. For Congress, the challenge is to consolidate the opposition vote without losing ground to the smaller parties or splinter groups. And for the JJP, INLD, BSP, AAP, and others, the goal is clear: to gain enough leverage to shape the post-election landscape.
In the end, Haryana’s electoral battle is not just about BJP vs. Congress—it is a multi-cornered contest where every vote counts, and where smaller players and independents could tip the scales. The results, which will be declared on October 8, will reveal whether Haryana will witness another fractured mandate or a decisive change in leadership.
