Aam Aadmi Party’s good work made them successful in Delhi

By

Vaidehi Taman

-

February 9, 2020

“First they ignore you

then they laugh at you

then they fight with you

then you win”— Mr. M.K Gandhi.

“Do not underestimate the power of a common man.”

This is what exactly happened in Delhi. BJP was continuously attacking the Aam Aadmi Party and Arvind Kejriwal. They called him an anti-national to Naxal and what not. They criticised him to the core, they tried spreading hate against him, they did all that can damage or tarnish the image of Aam Aadmi Party but voters have shown their maturity by ignoring the BJP and its hate politics. AAP was elected on an issue dear to the masses and classes. Nobody wants communal tensions. People needed a truly secular front and not appeasement politics. BJP committed the same mistake as the Congress. Instead of the AAP party and development, they focused on Kejriwal, just as the Congress focused on Modi during the Lok Sabha elections. The result is the same. Congress lost to BJP and now BJP has lost to AAP. Secondly, there is a leadership crisis in BJP; they failed to project a CM candidate in Delhi. The loose cannons in BJP gave random statements that have not gone well with voters. There were unsuccessful sting operations against Kejriwal government which were later on exposed by AAP leaders. In the entire campaign, BJP fell flat on its aerobatics.

AAP deserves to win the 2020 elections as it has worked to improve the life of common man not on paper or yojnas or abhiyans but on the ground level. During the elections, Arvind Kejriwal was asking votes for the work he has done but not for anything else. Whereas BJP was seen going communal as usual. The education and healthcare has created a positive, effective and visible impact on the common man and their lives. This combined with the improvement in infrastructure like power and water is seeing Kejriwal Government again in Delhi. Hats off to Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia and their team for the tremendous hard work they did in the national capital. BJP’s negative campaign already put them some steps behind AAP. 77 per cent of Muslim votes came out of supporting the Congress and turned their attention towards AAP. This endeavour is enough to convert a losing team into a winning one. The youth and dynamical volunteers of AAP were able to connect themselves with local people and rickshaw/ auto drivers and common masses. I would rate AAP’s performance very satisfactory based on the work they have done in Delhi. They have completely and positively transformed education and healthcare. They have delivered subsidised water and electricity for the needy without hurting taxpayers. They provided door step delivery for essential services. They have worked on a lot of areas to improve the infrastructure and overall well-being of Delhi. In 2013, 2014 and 2015, AAP had gained at the expense of the Congress. This year, the Congress is in revival mode and its old base seems to have moved back to the Congress at the expense of AAP. The voter this time denied splitting their votes between AAP and Congress. Hence, they favoured the Aam Aadmi Party completely.

AAP was elected on an issue dear to the masses and classes. This result is beyond the understanding of the best psychologists, data analysts, political analysts and enthusiasts. We got to accept that the man Arvind Kejriwal has proved BJP wrong. BJP gave away Delhi to AAP on a golden platter. There are many reasons behind the rout of the BJP in the national capital. BJP generally known for its alertness and its ability to attack its foes with all its might was snoozing ever since Arvind Kejriwal stepped down. While Arvind Kejriwal never wasted a moment in playing the victim blaming BJP (along with occasional mentions of Congress) and consolidating voter base with his padyatras and campaigns, BJP Delhi chose to chill and lay back. BJP Delhi was divided over going for fresh polls and many times they made their dissent public. They woke up just a month before the elections and then it was too late. The campaign ultimately became a mudslinging fest and it was very different from the “Vikas” agenda that BJP is known for. BJP Delhi was a relaxed unit which was relying heavily on the Modi rallies and Shaheen Bagh anti-national stand.

They were very confident of winning major seats in the name of Hindutva and nationalism, they thought that an announcement of Lord Rama’s temple would pitch those votes or Article 370 would change their fate but this time BJP was over confident. Delhi is not Uttar Pradesh or Bihar where communal stand matters a lot. An ordinary Delhi voter will always give Bijli Pani a higher priority than Hindu- Muslim. BJP hired many rejects from AAP but those were already disowned by the people of Delhi. On the other hand, AAP never stopped campaigning ever since Kejriwal retained power. They were everywhere. Their posters stared at us, their surveys stayed on our subconscious and their volunteers were all around us. Unlike last time, AAP this time didn’t go down and dirty. They weren’t too vitriolic. They kept on repeating their agendas and stayed away from needless mudslinging. They never said a word against any BJP leader rather they were more focused on what they had delivered. Kejriwal has learnt his lessons rather quickly from an aggressive leader to a matured Chief Minister. Also he never missed a chance to criticise the BJP. They successfully created an anti-incumbency sentiment against both Congress and BJP, while the last time BJP won the state elections in Delhi was 16 years ago. When lies are repeatedly told, they start appearing as truth. He has transformed from an activist to a politician but he has to become a leader and a statesman to command the same respect and trust that people bestowed in him.

We team AV wish Delhi Wallahs all the best. We wish AAP and Kejriwal all the best too. It is time to work more and more.

(Any suggestions, comments or dispute with regards to this article send us on feedback@www.afternoonvoice.com)

Can we believe in Exit Polls?

By

Afternoon Voice

-

February 9, 2020

On Sunday morning while going through newspapers, I was immensely happy to learn that a number of Exit Polls have predicted a clean sweep for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) followed by the BJP and Congress. I was more happy because the BJP had hurled all sorts of abuses on Kejriwal while the Delhi CM talked about the performance of his government. His only statement was, “If you are happy with the performance of my government, vote for me.”

Suddenly a question came to my mind as to ‘How important are exit polls’ and how are they devised? I spoke to few friends of mine about this and this is what I gathered:

Firstly, exit polls gives a broad idea and trend as to which party looks the strongest and how many seats will it get. It gives us the right idea as to where the frame of mind of the nation is heading to.

Secondly, an exit poll is a survey of voters taken soon after they cast their votes. It is conducted by several channels/ websites which use different methods for the purpose. Basically, exit polls are considered as an indicator to which party would form the next government.

Now, coming to the point as to how are exit polls conducted and regulated. People who conduct an exit poll follow a number of different methods. One of the most common method is sampling. Some may opt for random or systematic sampling. When we talk about random sampling, at times this can be of an entire electorate and not just the voters outside a booth which covers parameters like age, sex, caste, region etc.

Then comes the point where we differentiate between an exit poll and an opinion poll. An opinion poll is getting the view of the people as to whom the voter plans to vote, but an exit poll is for whom the voter actually voted for.

Earlier, channels and papers used to splash exit polls before the elections. But after giving it a serious thought, the Election Commission came up with the conclusion that exit polls can be telecast by organisations including websites only after final phase of polling. Further the Commission stated that the advisory would include display of any opinion poll and of standard debates, analysis, visuals and sound-bytes etc. It is also stated that news broadcasters must not air any final, formal and definite results until the results are formally announced by the Election Commission of India.

Further Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951 states that no person shall conduct any exit poll and publish or publicise it by means of the print or electronic media or disseminate in any other manner, whatsoever, the result of an exit poll during such period as may be notified by the Election Commission in this regard. Any person who contravenes the provisions of this section shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with fine or with both.

When I asked him as to why exit and opinion polls have been opposed by the Election Commission during a multi-phase election, Deepak Gagwani said, “If organisations conducting exit/opinion polls are perceived to be biased, then both kinds of polls can be controversial. In fact, critics says that these type of surveys can be influenced by the choice, wording and by the nature of the sample drawn.”

Now the vital question is are exit polls reliable? Undoubtedly exit polls give us an idea about the trend and also a sense of direction about the mood of the nation where it is directing. But it should be taken into consideration that there are several instances when predictions of exit polls turn out to be wrong.

There are many people who don’t believe in exit polls because they think that in most cases they are biased in terms of choice, words, timings of the questions and methodology that they use and kind of sample they draw.

(The views expressed by the author in the article are his/her own.)

Letters to the Editor: 09 February, 2020

By

Web Team

-

February 9, 2020

1Villagers support CAA

A small village on the outskirts of Ahmednagar, which has a 1000 per cent Hindu population extended support for Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). The gram panchayat of this village demanded an amendment in the Citizenship Act, so that ration card, voter card or Aadhaar card is acceptable as a proof of citizenship. Villagers felt that it will be their responsibility to prove that they are citizens of this country. The village has a large number of Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Class persons. They will find it difficult to submit proof of citizenship. As most of them are less educated, they will also find it challenging to furnish the proof issued by the revenue department. So, the support came from unlikely quarter and it is a striking example of how to approach a genuine problem.

Jayanthi Anandambal

2Superstar Rajinikanth and CAA

Superstar Rajinikanth said that Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) posed no threat to Muslims and described that the concerns over the law as unfounded and unwanted as no Muslim born in India are going to lose their citizenship. Rajinikanth also batted for the National Population Register (NPR) stating that the list is essential and important for the progress and development of the nation.

The star also opined that some parties and factions that have vested interest are trying to instigate the people against CAA. He also made it clear that there is no need for Muslims to panic and if there is any threat he’ll be ready to raise his voice for them. For an actor who has millions of fans, who belong to various religions and faith, following and lakhs of supporters for whom his words are taken as the final verdict the actor’s latest statement on an important issue is sure to cause a stir in Tamil Nadu and national politics. The star recently figured in the headlines for his remarks on atheist and social reformer Periyar who the Dravidian politicians look upon as their mentor and guide. The comments on the Dravidian icon had not gone well with the politicians following Dravidian ideology. With this it’s now clear that Rajinikanth is all set this time to step into the political arena and cause ripples and surprises. His remarks on CAA is sure to help and strengthen the BJP and the right wing factions and all those supporting the bill.

M Pradyu

3Where does money come for Kanhaiya Kumar’s car-convoy?

It refers to reported attack with shoes and slippers on car-covoy of former JNUSU President and CPI leader Kanhaiya Kumar in Katihar (Bihar) while the leader was going towards Bhagalpur after holding a meeting at Rajendra Stadium in Kaithar. It is a matter of law and order with police looking into the matter.

But big question is how newly emerged leader is getting funds for affording a large convoy of cars. It is a bitter fact of Indian politics that big politicians suddenly become super-rich after entering politics like several former Chief Ministers of UP and Bihar. Income Tax department should open a well-publicized cell for keeping vigilant eye on expenses made by politicians on their political activities and accumulating assets not only on experienced and veteran politicians but also on new-emerging politicians.

Madhu Agrawal

(The views expressed by the author in the article are his/her own.)

Tobacco is an addiction; ban will not serve the purpose

By

Vaidehi Taman

-

February 7, 2020

Tobacco is a dangerous addictive item which can cause mouth cancer and give rise to other health issues. But it is still not banned because the addicts cannot give up the habit in a day. Therefore the smuggling of tobacco will start on a large scale which would create a messy situation. But still the government is trying to reduce its consumption by creating awareness and opening Drug de-addiction centers. A government can try to ban anything, but in case of tobacco there are various reasons not to. There are people who insist on their right to smoke. They might tolerate state-imposed health-advice, but being entirely prohibited from smoking might cause them to no longer vote for the politicians who supported the ban. There are economic interests too in all this. Controlling companies from selling them would mean that those people who work in cigarette production, distribution and sales would lose their jobs. Many countries impose an additional tax on tobacco products which generates quite a lot of tax income. Banning smoking would cause this income to disappear. This would mandate cuts on government spending or a higher deficit.

India, home to the world’s second highest number of tobacco users (around 275 million), last year had set a target of reducing tobacco use by 20 per cent by 2020 and 30 per cent by 2025. Going by the decline in the output of tobacco products, the target under an action plan drawn up by the ministry of health and family welfare may not be out of reach. Stiff increases in tobacco and cigarette taxes and stringent packaging norms have contributed to the decline. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, output of tobacco which includes cigarettes, bidis and chewable tobacco products declined by 12.1 per cent in March 2015. The NDA’s anti-tobacco campaigns and its efforts to stop the sale of loose cigarettes (that accounts for about 70 per cent of total sales) and hike in penalties for smoking at public places has also worked in its favour. But industry body the Tobacco Institute of India (TII) does not subscribe to the view that consumption of tobacco products may have actually declined.

Punjab has banned them, but the reason behind a huge sale of gutkha in India is that the people who are addicted to it want to have it at any price. So, obviously Indians shop works on what most of their customers’ demands. Banning tobacco in India would be one of the worst things the government can do because India is the second largest tobacco producer in the world. Around 10 per cent of the total excise revenue comes from tobacco out of which around 80 per cent is contributed by cigarettes. Tobacco is a cash crop and thus provides high returns to farmers. The tobacco industry provides livelihood to around 45 million people in the country. But still if the government bans tobacco in India, they might have to face lot of consequences. Like tobacco may start trading in the black market same as Marijuana or Cannabis or Weed. Tobacco is a highly taxable commodity through which the government earns a lot of revenue. If tobacco starts trading in the black market, people will be still consuming tobacco, but government would not be getting any tax revenue. 45 million is a very high number of people that are employed in the industry. In a country like India, ripping these number of people will only go to increase the poverty level.

Thus banning tobacco will not help people in getting over their addiction but would rip off government from getting any revenues. Instead of banning, the government can issue a regulatory warning label area on the cigarette packet must be increased (various studies have shown it has a positive effect on people). Taxes on tobacco should be increased further; E-cigarettes should be promoted. Farmers should be promoted to shift their cropping pattern and shift to other crops. Awareness programs should be promoted in the schools and colleges. Smoking in public places should be STRICTLY BANNED. In short, the problem tobacco causes or number of families it rips apart can only be answered by people themselves by understanding that it is injurious to their health whether in chewing or smoking form.

Banning something is not a solution to eradicate the addiction people have to it. First of all, let’s understand that people don’t consume or get addicted to these things based on whether it’s legal or not. If you want to consume it, you’ll always find someone happy to sell it. There is a case relating to the scenario, it happened in the United States, in 1880, an act was passed known as anti-abortion and legalisation act, this act prevents the doctors and nurses from doing abortion. Doctors and nurses were put behind bars if they were caught doing abortion. In the early 1900’s, the crime rate increased badly and the reason was unknown. In 1970, a Rockwell commission was set up and it found out the reason. The reason is the women who were not able to abort or raise the children, gave birth to the child and threw their children off the streets. This made the children to grow without a proper guidance; thereby those children were involved in robbery, rape, crime etc.

You can ask how it is related to tobacco. If you stop a sudden activity which many people are practising, it is difficult to face the aftermath. India has 11·2 per cent of the world’s total smokers. If you ban tobacco it will affect us by many reasons. Banning gutka/pan masala leads to higher addiction to the same. This may sound counter intuitive, but it’s true. Banning Guthka/pan masala would mean that illegal sellers can sell these at a higher margin of profits, further increasing the supply of the same. Let’s take the example of Marijuana criminalisation in the USA. In the 1950s, usage of Marijuana became illegal and we can see a clear spike in the consumption. It was made legal way back in the ‘70s and the growth rate of consumption became zero. It is not practically possible to ban tobacco in India; figuratively there are approximately 200 million smokers in India which sum up to almost 12 per cent of the world’s smoking population. Just think what will happen to 200 million tobacco addicts if tobacco is banned all of a sudden.

The Indian tobacco industry is one of the largest commercial sectors and an important source of direct and indirect employment in many regions of the country. With a total production value of US$ 1.6 trillion in 2012, the tobacco industry’s contribution to the nation’s GDP amounted to 1.1 per cent representing about 7 per cent of the total for the manufacturing sector. Tobacco, being a labour intensive crop, provides employment to more than 60 lakh people who are engaged in the farming, curing, grading, primary marketing, processing, packaging, manufacturing, distribution, and retailing activities besides exporting.

(Any suggestions, comments or dispute with regards to this article send us on feedback@www.afternoonvoice.com)

Gutkha Manufacturers to be booked under MCOCA; State Govt To Act Strong On Gutkha Ban

By

Hema Singh

-

February 7, 2020

The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi government now will book gutkha manufacturers under the stringent Maharashtra Control of Organised Crime Act (MCOCA). With the imposition of the Act, anyone found involved in supply, manufacture, storage, distribution, transport and sale in the state is likely to face stern action.

Narayan Lad, Assistant general manager of Salaam Bombay Foundation said, “This issue was raised by Minister Ajit Pawar way back in 2012 but then nothing could be done. Now Mr. Pawar has again raised the topic and has put the same under MCOCA. It is a very good thing and we Salaam Bombay Foundation welcome this initiative and agree to cooperate with him in his endeavour. Because of this great initiative all officers will come together and put an end to this activity of selling these spurious things in black.”

A meeting to this effect was held on Wednesday in the presence of Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar. The meeting was also attended by home minister Anil Deshmukh and minister for food and drug administration Rajendra Shingne along with other senior officials. Issuing an order, Deshmukh directed action against Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officials and police officers if gutkha was found stored in their area of jurisdiction then strict action would also be taken against those officers. Also, warned the companies who are promoting liquor and tobacco with other subsidiary products in advertisements.

“We are contemplating this move as the ban has not been effective in the State from 2012 onwards. The existing laws are not strict and the accused get away easily by paying some fines. We will come down hard on those involved in illegal smuggling and production of gutkha,” according to a statement issued by minister.

Dr. Pankaj Chaturvedi from Tata Memorial Hospital said, “When the government banned Gutkha in 2012 under the authority of Food and Drug Administration (FDA), these people violated the rules and started selling Gutkha illegally. That is time when FDA was facing manpower shortage for inspecting millions of shop where the Gutkhas were being sold. However, now with the imposition of MCOCA, things have brightened up making it easier for the police force to get after these people.”

He further stated that, “The advantage of MCOCA is that people are afraid of the police officers. It’s a very good move by the government. This move will not only curtail unhealthy life and habit, but will also reduce the number of people suffering from cancer in Maharashtra. The other state also should follow this.”

The consumption of gutkha, pan masala, scented supari has been causing a bad effect on school and college going children. Not only that, consumption and spitting off the remains on the walls of office buildings, roads and outer side of the locals gave a bad effect on people going up and down the stairs.

When AV contacted a pan vendor he smiled and said, “When there is a demand there is a supply. We get the supply of these Gutkhas from the distributors, hence we are selling them”.

Another vendor said that he knows that a strict law is being enacted. “My stocks come from Vashi. I will sell off my stock as far as I can, but if situation gets bad, I will stop selling them. After all who wants to take risks.”

When asked if he knew that MCOCA was being imposed, he replied in the negative by saying that he doesn’t know that MCOCA has been imposed.

It may be remembered that the last government had imposed strict laws regarding the manufacturing of gutkha in the state. In case if the contraband was caught, the officials of gutkha manufacturers would release the same by giving a bribe.

The state Maharashtra has been imposed ban of gutkha in 2012 however, was not being implemented owing to pressure from a powerful gutkha lobby, and smuggling from neighbouring States. After the announcement of ban the officials has seized gutkha worth ₹171 crore. As per report, 3,727 FIRs has been filed in Court and still 4,600 court cases are pending.

The state has also imposes a jail term of six months on sale of tobacco, while selling it is a bailable offence under the existing laws. In the year 2018, the government had announced in Assembly that the punishment was raised to three years in prison and the offence made non-bailable.

Film and cricket critic Raju Bharatan takes a bow

By

Afternoon Voice

-

February 7, 2020

Cricket and film enthusiasts got up this morning only to hear that veteran cricket journalist and writer on film music Raju Bharatan has expired. He died following a prolonged illness in Mumbai on Friday. He was 86 and is survived by his daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren.

He also directed “The Victory Story” (1974), the first full-length cricket documentary for Films Division.

Author of six books, Bharatan first penned “Rivals in the Sun: A survey of the 1952 tour of England” (1952) followed by “Indian Cricket – The Vital Phase” (1977). He also wrote the biographies of legendary singers Lata Mangeshkar, Asha Bhosle and noted music director Naushad.

Condoling Bharatan’s death, former India spinner Bishan Singh Bedi tweeted, “Raju Bharatan of Illustrated Weekly is no more. He reported on Crkt & Films with equal elan & commitment. RIP Raju!.”

Bharatan who worked with “The Illustrated Weekly of India” for 42 years also tried his hand at cricket commentary.

Balochs agitation for independence seems to be dying down

By

Hem Raj Jain

-

February 7, 2020

The agitation of the Balochs for independence seems to be a never ending process. And by now the delusion of the people of Balochistan that was generated by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day speech on August 15, 2016 must have died down.

In this particular speech, Modi raised the issue of Pakistan’s human rights violations in Balochistan which raised absurd and false hopes in the minds of the gullible Balochs that now India would help them in gaining independence as India did in Bangladesh in 1971 (though it is impossible for military reasons for India in Balochistan).

Despite a legitimate case for the independence of Balochistan, it has not been able to achieve independence for so long because of lack of effective policies which has caused them to suffer immense atrocities and human rights violation at the hands of the State of Pakistan.

The Balochs can still achieve independence, sooner than later, if we do the following: –

Indian military enters J&K after ‘Instrument of Accession’ (IoA) of J&K to India was signed in October 1947 by its ruler in view of Pak invasion of J&K. But IoA of Baluchistan was signed (at gun point) in February 1948 (after Pakistan military invaded Balochistan) by its ruler who was not even authorised to sign this IoA as the Parliament (Dar-ul-Awam) has passed resolution for independence of Balochistan.
Hence the IoA of Balochistan to Pakistan is not worth the paper it is written on because as per an international law, the political fate of Balochistan (in view of said resolution by Dar-ul-Awam) is supposed to be decided by the people of the country through plebiscite / referendum (especially in this age of human-rights-friendly world which is already moving towards realising ‘ New horizon for mankind’)
Instead of trying medieval & antiquated methods for acquiring independence, the Balochs should have demanded independence through plebiscite. Fortunately, the Balochs can benefit from the case of United-J&K where also the fate of united-J&K is mandated to be decided by the IoA of J&K to India as mentioned.
In one sense, the Balochs are right in thinking that without outside support, they cannot attain independence. But this outside support the Balochs can easily get if they try for the realisation of ‘ Secular Democratic Federation of mini-SAARC’ in which united-J&K can be 9^th and Balochistan the 10^th member of SAARC because both united-J&K and Balochistan are bound to opt for independence during plebiscite. The Federation where all the martial subjects will be with the centre and all the civil subjects (including natural resources) will be with the member states.
There is only one very minor hurdle in this approach. The Kashmiris are not demanding plebiscite because they know that plebiscite will result in independent united-J&K whereas the influential Muslim leaders (and not majority of people) of Kashmir (unlike Baloch leaders & people who want secular State) want to join theocratic Pakistan and with their handful of supporters periodically raise the slogans “Kashmir ‘banega’ (will become) Pakistan”. But this nuisance can easily be eliminated if the Balochs persuade the Kashmiris to demand plebiscite (which is the mandate of the IoA of J&K to India) by telling them that Pashtuns of KPK would want to join this mini-SAARC earlier than discriminated-against Sindh because Pashtuns have been suffering immensely by the atrocities of the State of Pakistan. This will facilitate even Punjab part of Pakistan also to join this mini-SAARC (along with KPK & Sindh).
In India the main political parties of the centre namely BJP and the Congress have lost the script due to their support to two nations theory (by BJP crudely and by Congress subtly). Hence in future, only those political parties will come in or near power or will remain in power at the centre that will support one nation theory which is liked by the civil society of India.
It will help immensely if: – (i) The Balochs mobilise the people of J&K and Gilgit-Baltistan on the Pakistan side of LoC to persuade the people of Indian side of J&K (especially Kashmiris) to work for plebiscite in united-J&K. (ii) The Balochs arrange some seminars etc in India to tell the Indians that (a) The dual citizenship (as mention in said PCP article 3534) is the right solution for the problem of CAA / NRC, which is currently agitating India and (b) The plebiscite in Balochistan and United-J&K is in the interest of India.(iii) The Baloch organise such seminars all across Pakistan, then it will be the best.
The Balochs should not be unduly perturbed that in mini-SAARC, the Baloch area of Iran and Afghanistan will be left out. This apprehension is not valid because in SAARC (rather in extended-SAARC) both Afghanistan and Iran will be there. If in the USA (a country of merely ~ 330 million) number of States can be 50 then there is no reason why in extended-SAARC (a country of ~ 1.8 billion), the number of States cannot be at least two hundred in the interest of accommodating the regional, ethnic, linguistic etc aspirations of its citizens.
The Balochs need not be deterred by the baseless propaganda that China may oppose the independence of Balochistan due to its stakes in CPEC and Gwadar port. But this fear is baseless because SAARC will support these projects of China and any such project of any other country in its territory which will make transportation of goods easy and cheap and which will save power which in modern world is the resources of the mankind too (and not merely of the concerned country). Only concern of SAARC will be that China should not use CPEC & Gwadar port etc for military / strategic purpose which China has already said that it will not do so.
The Balochs should understand two basic realities. First, India and Pakistan will agree to only win-win solution and not to any zero-sum game where one’s gain is other’s loss. Secondly, present situation in India & Pakistan is conducive for the independence of Balochistan and united-J&K through mini SAARC because: –(i)Modi Government (and Hindutva forces) could get away with Babri Masjid matter as Muslims and their leaders (out of un-Islamic fear) did not file proper review petition in SCI. But in the matters of CAA / NRC and Kashmir (where Article 370 and 35-A have been amended and repealed and where practically all political leaders & activists are in prison, but how long it can be), it will not be so.(ii)In Pakistan there is a political crisis. Its establishment brought Imran’s PTI in power through illegitimate election by first removing from premiership and then not allowing Nawaz Shariff to contest election. Hence said mini-SAARC is the right solution for Pakistan.
In addition to mobilize the Kashmiris and others (as mentioned above) it will go a long way in realising independence (for both Balochistan and united-J&K) if the Balochs take the lead in launching an NGO in the USA (registered as per law of the USA) for lobbying and gaining support for the cause of plebiscite in Balochistan and united-J&K. This NGO can carry-out demonstrations, seminars, meetings etc at various places / cities in the USA and can move and approach the Congress and its relevant Committees and US Administration and can even contact diplomats of various countries in the USA and at the United Nations and can also mobilise the influential US media. It will obviously help the cause immensely because whatever people may say (and with some justification) but there are still lots of people (including influential) in the USA who genuinely care for the human rights of the entire mankind and want to usher the world into liberal political order.

It is hoped that in the interest of peace, harmony and prosperity in the Indian subcontinent, the Balochs will follow the path of mini-SAARC through a legally expected plebiscite in Balochistan and united-J&K (also by taking the help of to-be-launched registered NGO in the USA for moving the world community including the leader of free world the USA for their legitimate and urgent cause).

(Any suggestions, comments or dispute with regards to this article send us on feedback@www.afternoonvoice.com)

Big bang announcement in times of tottering economy

By

C K Subramaniam

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February 7, 2020

For an economy that is tottering, a big bang announcement from the government can sometimes work to turn around ones sentiment. The unveiling of a mega push to the infrastructure investment adding up to Rs. 102 lakh crore over the next five years by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman belongs to this category. Projects in energy, roads, railways and urban infrastructure under the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) have been identified by a task force. About 42 per cent of such identified projects are already under implementation, 19 per cent are under development and 31 per cent are at the conceptual stage.

The NIP task force appears to have gone project-by-project assessing each for viability and relevance in consultation with the States. Considering that the NIP will be like a window to the future, a constant review becomes paramount if this is not to degenerate into a mere collation and listing of projects. A periodic review as promised by the Finance Ministry is necessary. The government’s push on infrastructure development will not only enable ease of living such as metro trains in cities and towns, but also create jobs and increase demand for primary commodities such as cement and steel. From this perspective, this push to invest in infrastructure is welcome.

Rupee conversion of the $2.85 Tr nominal GDP value is: Rs.200 Tr. Rs.10 Tr investments are needed for Value Additions (VA) that would offer at least Rs.750 billion in terms of minimum benefits to the People by way of wages/salaries/business profits etc. Infrastructure project investments cannot accrue, offering benefits to the People, except at marginal levels. Instead, we would need more Industrial/Agriculture/R&D works/Projects leading to more spin-offs.

One estimate of annual VA systems, adding to enhance Industrial/Agricultural and related value enhancing (and benefiting People by way of wages etc) would have to be on a continually added annual basis: Rs.9 Tr in 2020, and thereafter @ Rs.12 Tr, Rs.15 Tr, Rs.18 Tr, Rs.21 Tr – till 2025. This system of Investments in VA projects (Industry/Agriculture etc, including R&D to effect spin-offs) could take the Indian GDP level to $5 Tr – by 2025. In such cases, the Government has to be judicious in identifying the projects to be put in the pipeline is the easy part. Implementing and commissioning them will be the more difficult one. There are a few hurdles that the NIP task force needs to watch out for. First, the financing plan assumes that the Centre and the States will fund 39 per cent each while the private sector will chip in with 22 per cent of the outlay. Going by the present fiscal situation, it will be no small challenge for the Centre to raise Rs.39 lakh crore, even if it is over the next five years. The financial position of States is even more perilous. Secondly, the Rs. 22 lakh crore expected from private investment also looks steep considering the lack of appetite for fresh investment by the private sector in the last few years. In fact, this factor has been a major drag on economic growth. Given the scale of investment, debt will play an important role and it remains to be seen if banks have gotten over their apprehensions on infrastructure financing as a major part of their bad loans originated there. Finally, cooperation from States becomes very important in implementing infrastructure projects. The experience on this count has not been very happy till now. While these are genuine obstacles that the task force needs to manage, these should not detract from the need for a concerted effort to invest in infrastructure. The key will be following up and reviewing the pipeline at regular intervals.

(The views expressed by the author in the article are his/her own.)

Peter Mukerjea gets bail but…

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Afternoon Voice

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February 7, 2020

Four years after he was jailed in the Sheena Bora murder case with his wife Indrani Mukerjea as convicts, the Bombay High Court on Thursday granted him bail observing that based on first impression, no evidence has been found against him.
However despite the bail, Mukerjea won’t be able to walk out of the jail. After the order, the High Court stayed its own order for six weeks in which time the CBI could approach the Supreme Court. The Court has also asked Mukerjea to pay Rs 2 lakh and said that the bail was granted on the “merits of the case and his medical conditions”. The Court has restricted Mukerjea from contacting his children Rahul and Vidhi.

Mukerjea, a former media executive has been accused of murdering Sheena Bora who was the daughter of his wife Indrani Mukerjea from a previous relationship. In March last year, the CBI told a special Mumbai court that Mukerjea was the “silent killer” of Sheena. The CBI had said this while opposing his bail plea in the 2012 murder case. Mukerjea, arrested in the sensational Sheena Bora murder case in 2015, had moved the bail application in November last year before special CBI Judge JC Jagdale.

Opposing his bail plea, special public prosecutor Bharat Badami argued that the CBI has sufficient evidence to prove Peter Mukerjea’s role in the murder conspiracy. “Peter was knowing everything…he was not a statue of the family. He took no step when Rahul was desperately asking about Sheena….Peter is silent killer of Sheena,” the CBI lawyer had claimed.

BMC to install gate pumps to minimise tidal effect in the city during monsoon

By

Afternoon Voice

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February 7, 2020

By the way things are moving, it looks like Mumbai will not be affected by floods from this year onwards. In its budget, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has proposed to explore a new technology wherein gate pumps will be installed at the mouths of nullahs to minimise the tidal effect in the city during the monsoon.

These gate pumps at outfalls of stormwater drains (SWD) will not just help discharge rainwater into the sea or creeks, but will also stop the tidal water from entering the city during high tide. The idea has been proposed keeping in mind the space constraints in Mumbai and it will also nullify the need for cutting mangroves to construct a large number of pumping stations.

“The technology for providing gate pumps at outfalls is being explored to eliminate the tidal effect on the SWD network and to control water-logging in low lying areas. The gate pumps can be installed within the nullah and will not need more space,” a BMC officer averred.

As a follow up of the Chitale Committee’s recommendations following the 2005 Mumbai flood, the civic body has managed to construct six while it was to build eight. Land acquisition for the remaining two at Mogra and Mahul is likely to begin this year and a provision of Rs. 150 crore has been made in the 2020-2021 budget.

Further, the civic body has started installing back rack or wiremesh screens at Irla and Lovegrove nullahs to prevent floating garbage from entering the sea.

For the upcoming monsoon, a provision of Rs 50 crore, Rs 70 crore and Rs 18 crore has been proposed in the budget for desilting of major nullahs, minor nullahs and the Mithi River respectively.