The BJP’s handling of key issues, such as the concerns of female wrestlers and the agitating farmers, has left much to be desired in the eyes of Haryana’s voters. The party’s critical stance toward these groups, rather than addressing their grievances, has alienated a significant portion of the electorate. This has created substantial challenges for the BJP as it attempts to retain power in the state. In contrast, the Congress has gained considerable momentum by standing in solidarity with aggrieved farmers and sportspersons during their crises. This show of support has earned the party goodwill, positioning it as a strong contender in the upcoming elections.
Olympic wrestlers Vinesh Phogat and Bajrang Punia recently met with Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi in Delhi, fueling speculation about their possible entry into politics. Sources suggest they may join the Congress party and potentially run as candidates in the upcoming Haryana Assembly elections. Phogat is reportedly being considered for either the Julana seat in Jind or the Charkhi Dadri constituency, while Punia may contest from Badli in Jhajjar district, even though there is already a sitting Congress MLA in that constituency. The meeting took place just before Gandhi’s departure for Kashmir for the Assembly election campaign. Currently, Amarjeet Dhanda of the Jannayak Janta Party holds the MLA seat for Julana. There is speculation that Congress may provide tough competition to the BJP in both Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir.
Since 1999, there has been a notable trend in Haryana where the party or alliance that won the majority of seats in the Lok Sabha elections also went on to form the government in the state Assembly elections. In the last five pairs of general and Vidhan Sabha elections, this pattern has held, making the outcome of general elections in Haryana a key indicator for state-level politics. As a result, it is crucial for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to perform well in Haryana in the Lok Sabha polls, as it will strengthen their position ahead of the state elections later this year. This makes Haryana a significant battleground for both national and state-level politics.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP achieved a sweeping victory in Haryana, running independently and capitalizing on the nationalist sentiment that surged following the Balakot airstrikes. The internal split within the Chautala family, which led to Dushyant Chautala forming the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), also worked in the BJP’s favor by dividing opposition votes. As a result, the BJP secured all 10 seats with a commanding 58 percent vote share, while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was reduced to just 2 percent. The newly formed JJP made its debut with a modest 5 percent vote share, and the Congress garnered 28 percent of the votes.
Ahead of the upcoming elections, the Congress is focused on consolidating support from key demographic groups—Jats, Dalits, and Muslims—who together make up 50 percent of the state’s population. In 7–8 constituencies, these combined communities hold considerable influence, accounting for 40 percent of the local population. The Congress hopes to counter the BJP’s dominance by leveraging the narrative that the saffron party may alter the constitution if it returns to power, a message aimed at resonating with these groups. Despite the BJP’s strong 58 percent backing in 2019, Congress is strategizing to make inroads by appealing to this significant voter base.
The BJP faces a tough contest in Haryana as Congress is determined to deliver a significant blow to the ruling party. BJP strategists are relying on a potential split in opposition votes to offset any losses. Given Haryana’s status as a bellwether state, it is crucial for the BJP to secure more seats than Congress in the upcoming general elections.
The bigger challenge for the BJP lies in the Vidhan Sabha polls, where it faces the task of retaining power while contending with a decade-long anti-incumbency sentiment. Performing well in the general elections is key for the BJP, as it would set a positive tone and improve its prospects for the state elections later this year. A strong showing in the general elections is essential to boost the party’s momentum heading into the Assembly polls.
With internal surveys indicating that Congress, the main opposition party, has an advantage going into the elections—even in areas where the BJP had previously made significant gains—the ruling BJP is under pressure to regroup and address these challenges. A major point of concern for the party is growing public resentment, particularly against the previous administration led by Manohar Lal Khattar. This dissatisfaction is seen as a significant hurdle for the BJP as it attempts to retain power in Haryana amidst rising competition from Congress and other opposition forces.
A strong sense of dissatisfaction has emerged among a large section of voters in Haryana, largely due to the BJP government’s harsh response to protesting farmers over the past three years and other governance issues. This growing discontent has bolstered Congress’s prospects for the upcoming Assembly election later this year, putting the BJP at risk of facing significant setbacks. The unrest also suggests that the BJP may experience losses in the state’s Lok Sabha seats, as public sentiment appears to be shifting away from the ruling party.
