[dropcap]P[/dropcap]eople in two and half years have become aware about the ground realities of Narendra Modi’s promises that has all been spun to “Jumla” a prank as mentioned by Amit Shah. Modi is a bundle of falsehoods and that he has proved for himself. Where is the black money? How much fake currency has been detected? And the terrorists who are still at large attacking our country from all corners are also caught with new Rs. 2000 currency. They have tried all gimmicks and made fool of people. In UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur, the BJP has turned out to be the party of defectors and traitors from Congress mostly. It seems that BJP has run short of candidates and they are inducting candidates from the Congress party. However for this time, Amit Shah and Modi would be given a warm send off from states like UP.
Amit Shah said that the party would win in all the five poll-bound States. However, in Uttar Pradesh it would get a two-thirds majority on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “development plank”. Here question is that, where the development is and what development he is speaking about?
Modi is hoping on the demonetisation as opponents lack credibility at the national level, apart from being divided. They are also hoping and thinking people have accepted their demonetisation as they shown extraordinary patience. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 71 parliament seats by winning 328 (81 per cent) of 403 assembly segments. This was extraordinary performance by any party in the recent history of UP elections. To put that in context, the last time a political party won more than 80 per cent of all constituencies in UP was in 1977, when the Janata party won 80 per cent of the seats in a post-emergency landslide. Not only did the BJP win 81 per cent of seats in 2014, but it did so by a massive margin.
There are four major political parties in the fray in UP – the ruling SP, Congress (INC) in alliance with SP, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and BJP. These parties have traditionally contested the UP elections independently. The 2015 loss of the BJP in Delhi to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) coming on the heels of the former’s sweep of Delhi in the 2014 elections is another popularly cited example. After that in Bihar BJP was shown doors. Slowly Modi wave started settling to dust and party is losing its sheen.
Further, in five of the last six state and national elections in UP since 2002, the two regional parties have won a greater majority of the votes combined than the two national parties – BJP & INC – except in 2014. The SP won the 2002 state election and the subsequent 2004 national election in UP. The BSP won the 2007 state election and was the leading party in the 2009 national election in UP. People of UP gave them chance turn by turn, this time the equations between Dalit-Muslim and upper caste votes changed and so the political strategies. Samajwadi chose to go with Congress and BSP, BJP, BSP may join hands after elections. Inspite of serious Dalit issues, Mayawati could not gain much popularity in the state and BJP with demonetisation lost all chances.
If the BJP secure less than required seats in the 2017 UP election, it indicates that a large number of UP-voters changed the decision they made in 2014 and would also, perhaps, go down as among the most significant vote-share swings in India’s electoral history. Only under this scenario, can the 2017 UP electoral outcome be a true omen for the 2019 national elections, not otherwise.
This time BJP and BSP has to make real efforts in Uttar Pradesh to retain power. On the other hand, surprisingly if you look at this crooked political plot of SP, son and father very well managed the emotions of rural and urban voters of the state. This too posed a big challenge to rival parties because all of them have gone out of limelight.
Though, Mulayam and Akhilesh both managed to capture National attention by dominating headers of news and news spaces other political parties could not get much presence in news these days. Modi’s demonetisation stunt has taken a backseat in UP, rather we can say without spending any single penny, Samajwadi Party’s son-father duo have single handed managed to create hype for themselves and stole the show so far.
BJP actually lacks agenda for contesting UP polls. The same old blabbering may not get them much vote. Modiji, anyhow managed to get the crowd from neighbouring state for his rally by paying them huge amount, providing food, travel and other facilities. However, they are not listening what Modiji is saying in speeches, but they used BJP offers to cope up with demonetisation. If we talk about Congress and AIMIM, they might win some seats. But still while concluding let me say we cannot refute the fact that SP played it well against all forces. BJP at 11th hour is trying hard to regain its sheen and Congress anyway has formed alliance with SP. Behenji, too is trying her best to regain power. Let’s see who makes it.
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