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Brexit overhang to dominate trading, markets may see-saw

Indian indices may see spells of volatility this week and the Brexit overhang is likely to sway trading sentiment, with the upcoming derivative expiry on Thursday posing as an element of uncertainty, say experts.

“Early this week, we may continue to see volatility in Indian markets and some more downside cannot be ruled out completely,” Pankaj Sharma, Head of Equities, Equirus Securities.

“The global economy is still extremely fragile and there is a fair amount of probability that we get a couple of extreme negative surprises from different parts of the world over the next 18-24 months.”

Marketmen expect the overhang of Brexit this week and the derivative expiry may add to the uneasiness.

“UK’s exit has created uncertainty for equities as an asset class, albeit only for the short term. This week, this sentiment will continue to dominate trading sentiment,” said Vijay Singhania, Founder Director, Trade Smart Online.

Apart from global cues, investors will continue to closely watch the progress of monsoon rains, he added.

“This week, volatility will also remain as traders roll over positions in the futures and options (F&O) segment,” Singhania said.

Besides, stocks of auto companies will be in focus amid release of monthly sales data for June from Friday.

“The Indian market will undoubtedly be affected by global factors, but we expect it to hold out better versus other EMs given its decent macroeconomic position and limited linkages to global influences,” Kotak Institutional Equities said in a report.

On Friday, the day of Brexit referendum results, the benchmark Sensex lost nearly 1,100 points intra-day before closing 604.51 points lower.

“While markets are jittery, this is a god-send event, especially for Indian investors. While we saw a steep fall in the indices, the trajectory of Indian markets remains upwards,” said Jimeet Modi, CEO, SAMCO securities.

On a weekly basis, heavy selling pressure at the fag end of the week due to a sharp fall in global markets as the UK voted for Brexit pulled down the Sensex by 228 points and Nifty by 82 points.

“We see Brexit as a buying opportunity in the long term. While it is difficult to predict market movement in the short term, recent correction offers a long-term buying opportunity for investors.

There will be concerns if monsoon turns adverse, (and) not Brexit,” said S Naren, ED and CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC.

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