The government is likely to gain the votes it needs to pass the Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill this year which could have far reaching macroeconomic and earnings implications, says a Morgan Stanley report.
“The government could gain the votes it needs in 2016 to pass a Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill,” Morgan Stanley said in a research note.
In recent time, investor expectations regarding the passage of the GST bill, have waned due to a logjam in the Upper House. However, according to the global financial services major, support for GST bill is rising in the Rajya Sabha.
“The key to the bill’s passage is a reduction in the number of Upper House members opposing the bill. That number currently stands at 91 and it needs to fall to 82 for the bill to clear – we forecast that to happen by July 2016,” the report noted.
The report further noted that “once the bill clears Parliament, getting the bill passed by more than half of the states should not prove challenging, as the BJP and its allies are currently in power in 12 of 29 states, and a few beyond the 12 are supportive of the bill”.
The GST bill will have significant implications on the stock market. As per the research report, six of the ten sectors would benefit from a GST implementation.
Sectors like consumption, logistics, house building materials, and industrial manufacturing would likely experience a positive impact.
Meanwhile, cigarettes (if included in the GST) and oil & gas could see a negative impact, while the remaining sectors would likely see a neutral impact, the report noted.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley recently said that the government will reach out to the Congress in the current session of Parliament to resolve the deadlock over the GST bill.