This year for a change people thought it would be the competition between AAP and BJP, but as we all know Narendra Modi will not lose the elections. BJP will cross the winning numbers and AAP will wind up with 7 to 8 seats. AAP had only one advantage and that was anti-incumbency and a new option for people against the old party. Congress votes may shift to Aam Aadmi Party but they won’t get a majority.
Hardik Patel, the face of the Patel agitation during the 2017 elections, left the Congress party to join BJP in June this year. The Patel community constitutes 12-14 per cent of the State population, and they will vote for BJP. As for the Congress, the party will be missing Ahmed Patel, a key strategist and a long-time aide of the Gandhi family, who played a big role in mobilising the cadre. Patel died of multiple organ failure in 2020. The seat tally for Congress is expected to be restricted to between 15 and 30, a drastic fall from 77 in 2017.
The Aam Aadmi Party, on the other hand, will eat up 10-20 seats of the Congress as even their minority votes are likely to be divided due to a lack of strong leadership in the State. Meanwhile, Akbaruddin Owaisi will play the spoiler for Congress and AAP, which will benefit BJP. Similar trends are visible in Himachal Pradesh too, where polls are scheduled on November 12. There too, BJP is expected to retain power and the anti-incumbency factor may not play much of a role. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), now in power in Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state, for 24 years now and as the Election Commission (EC) today declared the schedule for the 2022 Gujarat assembly elections, the moot question is whether it will be back to power, creating a history of sorts, or no.
In 2017, BJP won by a narrow margin, bagging less than 100 seats, with the Congress as the chief Opposition that bagged 77 seats. The contest had come down to the wire, so to say, and it was largely PM Modi, who delivered the BJP to safe shores in Gujarat through his tumultuous campaigning and tireless canvassing. This time BJP will get seats in excess of 120 in a 182-strong state assembly. BJP this time will do way better than last time in 2017 since several factors are helping the party. Party may score 120 seats.
In 2017 BJP had strong opposition from Congress and in all the constituencies the party gave a tough contest. But now Congress has become too sober and too mellowed with most of their leaders leaving the party. The anti-BJP votes will get scattered between AAP and Congress, which will only help BJP. Also, so long as Modi and Amit Shah are in the party, Gujarat will never vote them out.
Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Mallikarjuna Kharge-led Congress are expected to get around 50 seats as the “Bharat Jodo Campaign” has melted many hearts for Congress. AAP will eat away Congress, and that will benefit BJP. The Modi factor is equally important. People still believe that if Modi is PM, everything will be fine in India. No doubt AAP will pose some threat to Congress and also BJP in some of the areas of Surat, north Gujarat and that too in the interior part. AAP will give their best but still not at the cost of the BJP.
Gujarat assembly elections are due in the year. All three parties BJP, Congress and AAP are making arrangements for their victory. In the meantime, many leaders from different political parties switched sides.
BJP is the biggest party congress is the second and AAP is the third party. By the number of seats, it could be possible that Congress and AAP may join hands together to fight with BJP. But at this stage, BJP is stronger in Gujarat. The upcoming Gujarat elections are very important and more critical to the opposition than the BJP and then still more important to Arvind Kejriwal and then extremely important for the Muslims and Christians.