Some think tanks say, there is no textbook definition of what constitutes a wave in an epidemic. The term is used generically to describe the rising and declining trends of infections over a prolonged period of time. The growth curve resembles the shape of a wave. Historically, the term wave is used to refer to the seasonality of the disease. Several viral infections are seasonal in nature, and they recur after fixed time intervals. Infections rise and then come down, only to rise again after some time.
Covid-19 has continued relentlessly for the last one-and-a-half years, but in geography, there have been periods of surge that have been followed by a relative lull. In India so far, there have been two very distinct periods of the surge, separated by a prolonged lull.
On the other hand, the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) director Randeep Guleria emphasized that India might not see the third wave of coronavirus but it largely depends on people following Covid norms. Here in Mumbai, life is back on track. Malls are packed, markets are overcrowded and people are really not bothered to maintain social distance or mask protocol.
Second Wave, Preparations Required for Third Wave and Majority of teenagers, uncles and aunties nowadays go for morning walks evening walks during the time of curfew everyone has walked out during the pandemic. After relaxation, there won’t be any deterrence. The general feeling is that adults are getting vaccinated, children are not being vaccinated and therefore if there is a new wave it will affect those who are more susceptible.
Hundreds of children have tested positive for COVID-19 during the first ten days of August across India, creating a worrisome situation for parents. Probably that is the reason the government is yet not prepared to reopen the schools. But the irony is that these kids are visiting malls, restaurants and gardens but not school. More than 50 per cent of children have already been infected as per the survey and have antibodies.
According to a study conducted by IIT researchers, India might witness the third Covid-19 wave in August with daily cases clocking between 1-1.5 lakh, however, researchers said the third wave is likely to be weaker than the second wave. The forecast by the researchers suggests that the government accelerate the vaccination drive, deploy surveillance methods to catch emerging hotspots and amplify genome sequencing given the potential for new variants to emerge.
In July, a report published by SBI Research predicted the third wave in India by August which will peak in September. Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) scientist Professor Samiran Panda also told India Today TV that the third wave is likely to come by August-end and India may witness one lakh daily Covid-19 cases.
Currently, India has 4,13,718 active Covid-19 cases with a recovery rate at 97.35 per cent. However, southern states such as Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka along with Maharashtra are reporting high daily virus cases. While these states account for 83.12 per cent of the new virus cases, Kerala alone is responsible for 51.65 per cent of the new cases. On the vaccination front, the government has administered over 47 crore doses of Covid-19 vaccines. However, only seven per cent of the population has been fully vaccinated so far.
The third wave at present under discussion refers to a possible surge in cases at the national level. The national curve seems to have entered a declining phase now, after having peaked on May 6. In the last two weeks in this August, the daily case count has dropped from the peak.