You can’t run a country like India with just one discourse narrated by Congress and left-liberals for so long. This discourse was bound to come and will continue for another 30-40 years. Modi successfully abolished caste-based politics and took it to religion-based politics. Those local politicians who sustained on cast votes not getting dentin their vote share. He also gave a run to the regional political parties including Congress for their monies. The opposition parties have no idea to suggest to the nation what programmes they have but have only one agenda to remove Modi.
Most of the third front regional political outfits in India claim that all that Modi is doing were their original ideas. Those who implement original ideas are remembered but not those who dreamt but never attempted to implement much less actually did so. We cannot say Modi has not done anything; he has done all that pleases his voters and supporters. Yes, India including Uttar Pradesh needed education, medical facilities, jobs and those promised smart cities. But we are Happy with Hindutva and Hindu sentiments. We give damn to policy failures because Modi has passed in making our most precious issue Ram Mandir, and soon we are going to see the demolition of another Masjid in Mathura. We want our Hindu Rashtra and Hindutva fire burning in us.
Recently the PM went to a ceremony in Varanasi – he did the needful, dipping in the Ganges and offering prayers, all that we do as Hindus. What is the need to criticize every point of it? Was it done to consolidate votes? Maybe yes – remember BJP is a political party too. They need to do these to win the elections as well. When Mamata delayed Dussehra for Muharram to take place, was it not appeasement? When Manmohan said a minority has the first right to a country’s resources, was it not appeasement? No one will talk about these but the PM took one dip in the Ganga people felt so disgusting?
Well! Now let us come back to our election topic, In Uttar Pradesh, there are three main parties that play a major role in elections. Those parties are BJP, SP, and BSP but this time for a change it’s Congress too. Other parties like Apna Dal(S), RLD, Aam Aadmi Party, can play the trump card if there is going to be a hung assembly. Caste, Religion, Ayodhya Mandir, Loyal voters of parties, Law & Order situation, Influence of Riots and religious battle and lastly health, education, and employment that plays vital roles. So keeping all these factors in mind we can understand how the current government is the favourite player for the 2022 election. The current status and position of some leading parties in UP and how the AAP and AIMIM can affect the election scenario is another segment to mark the accuracy of predictions.
Modi magic still works, Yogi is a prominent Hindutva icon and Hindutva will be the factor that makes BJP the favourite party for the UP voters. More than this no party as a single player can defeat BJP in the UP. Samajwadi Party is the second-largest party in Uttar Pradesh. The main advantage to SP is cast votes. But the demerit can be family disputes, diminishing influence of SP in their bastion, party’s internal disputes over the leadership, and much more. It can be sure that in single combat the SP can’t defeat the BJP.
Bahujan Samaj Party, strong leadership and caste votes. If the BSP forms an alliance with INC and SP, then it can dent the BJP’s dream to retain the UP in 2022. But alliance either with SP or INC won’t help the BSP to get more than 40+ seats. INC was the party that once dominated UP politics for a decade. But with the rise of BJP, the weak organization of INC, and the popularity of Yogi, INC lost its vote share.
To revive the situation, INC appointed Priyanka. But it didn’t work as Rahul lost his seat in the UP general election 2019. Without the support of SP or BSP, it is for sure that INC can’t win even ten minimum seats. Apna Dal(S) is the alliance partner of BJP in the general election and Assembly election since 2014. With the support from the BJP’s brand and its own caste votes, it is performing and showing better scores in comparison to INC and RLD.
But if the AD(S) wants to go solo then it won’t win more than two seats in the upcoming assembly election 2022. Rashtriya Lok Dal party is struggling to find its identity. Once they were very much capable of getting 30+ seats on their own. But now the situation has changed after the 2014 general election.
All India Majlis E Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), if this time they manage to get good vote shares in UP then it will be a high alert situation for SP and INC. It will affect their vote banks and boost BJP to concrete their position. As the UP has a 19% population from the Muslim community, it is creating a successful stage for the AIMIM. If the AIMIM won’t contest in UP, then it will be the INC and SP who will get the benefit and vice versa.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has no influence on UP. It can’t influence the election scenario like the AIMIM. Like Bhagbant Mann in Punjab, there is no candidate or leader in UP, who can lead the party. AAP might get less than 1% votes in the upcoming assembly election 2022 in UP.
In this election, BJP will fight along with Apna Dal(S) against all the parties. But as per the current scenario, it looks like the fight will be NDA Vs SP Vs BSP Vs UPA Vs Others. Under this combination with the help of the following factors, Yogi will easily win the election. His effort to make UP an industrial hub will help him to counter the unemployment issues. The progress of Ram Mandir accelerated his popularity in UP, Modi Magic will be the factor to get additional votes in every assembly seat. The negative approach of INC towards Ram Mandir, Article 370, and Triple Talaq will help BJP to get additional votes in every assembly seat. BJP losing the UP assembly election is unlikely. Maybe BJP may secure a little less than what they got in 2017. BJP will be forming the government ultimately.