In the recent past, many Congress and NCP leaders joined BJP and many MNS and Congress leaders joined Shiv Sena. Both the parties in alliance are trying to be solo and fight individually in Assembly elections. But if we look in flash back, during Parliamentary elections the Shiv Sena got success because of the Modi wave. BJP got more than 272 seats and hence, it did not require support from Shiv Sena to form government at the Centre. Shiv Sena was given only one ministerial berth. During last assembly elections, no doubt, both the parties fought separately, but the anti-incumbency wave against Indira Congress + NCP was very strong and so BJP and Shiv Sena both got good success. Unfortunately, neither BJP nor Shiv Sena got absolute majority in the assembly and here began the drama in the state. Shiv Sena was so far the big brother in Maharashtra, however, 2014 elections changed the equations to make BJP big brother and Sena the younger brother. Somehow, Shiv Sena could not digest this humiliation. Hence, they want to be in power and yet want to distance it from BJP. Shiv Sena wants all the credits but does not want to share the criticism from opposition parties. BJP is a national party whereas Shiv Sena is restricted to a few pockets of Maharashtra, however, in Mumbai i.e. financial capital of India, Shiv Sena is stronger and has ruled for last 20 years and hence is now reluctant to share its fortune with BJP.
Maharashtra politics is cluttered. Earlier, there were two alliances weighing for power. One UPA, and another NDA. Later in 2014 assembly elections, it increased to four. Four parties Congress, BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP, were weighing for power. Of late, it looks as if many factions of RPI, Dalit faction headed by Mevani, etc., jumping into the fray. Now there are too many contestants.
Hitherto the political disturbance used to emanate from the strong leadership of late Bal Thackeray of Shiv Sena or his nephew. Of late, outside elements from Gujarat, Mevani, has been instigating the same. Hence, Shiv Sena has given the leadership for generating conflicts to an outsider. The 2014 assembly elections revealed that Maharashtra will favour only right wing politics by electing 185 MLAs, from BJP + Shiv Sena. Even in local body elections, these two won all the corporations leaving nothing for secular forces. Seeing this one way tilt, Rahul used Mevani to carve his own niche in the state by generating conflicts between castes. Congress wants to replace Hindutva, with Dalit and forward class conflicts because it suits them. New crop of leaders are taking over from the older generation politicians. Sharad Pawar, Ashok Chavan, Bal Thackeray, Prakash Ambedkar, etc. are replaced by Devendra Fadnavis, Nitin Gadkari, Narayan Rane, Raj Thackeray, Uddhav Thackeray and Ajit Pawar, etc.
Shiv Sena is a party created by Bal Thackeray the last word in Mumbai if any issue arises. Even opposition Congress, NCP and all other parties though disagreeing respected him. Thus was his charisma and influence on Maharashtra politics. In spite of such a strong persona the party in its history of 50 years was able to have a Chief Minister only once that too with the support of BJP. The reason Shiv Sena is going against BJP in spite in alliance is to split anti-BJP votes and prevent them from going to Congress, NCP or MNS. The game plan is basically to prevent rise of Congress and NCP as a formidable opposition in Maharashtra, as with NDA at Centre, there is no chance that they can curb the influence of BJP in Mumbai or Maharashtra.
Remind you that even after having 18 MPs in Parliament, BJP allotted them a cabinet berth of less significance and started sidelining them after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. For BJP, Shiv Sena is a sinking ship after the demise of Bal Thackeray and they don’t want to carry extra baggage and give portfolios and ministries to Shiv Sena.
Looking at present scenario, we can see how Raj Thackeray lost his charm because of continuous flip-flops and not sticking to the core issue. He did a grave mistake by supporting Modi in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and propping candidates against Shiv Sena. He suffered a huge defeat with all his candidates losing deposit. Then he again stood against BJP and addressed many rallies with audios and visuals, but that did not make any effect and BJP won with super duper margin. Now Raj Thackeray is roaming around ED office and tamed down to a greater extent. Politics is uncertain; you never know who will gain glory and who will fall after 5 years from now. Shiv Sena is doing what every political party should do in order to save from the Modi juggernaut. Neither Uddhav nor Raj has got the charm of Balasaheb Thackeray. Uddhav though the head of Shiv Sena now seems not that in control of the party and seems stuck between his and Sanjay Raut’s views. Shiv Sena is turning out to be a confused party and there by confusing the followers as to what the party stands for. It’s a party now without vision, direction and a strong leadership. To add further more, Uddhav’s son Aaditya would be contesting elections and would be awarded with deputy CM post. Aaditya Thackeray is not someone who looks like a chief ministerial material. Aaditya has little say in the distribution of tickets or the execution of policy decisions — factors that are essential for leaving one’s stamp on the party. BJP has now emerged even stronger and would want to leverage the momentum.
BJP has other advantage that Maharashtra Congress is crumbling and most Congress leaders joined BJP as first choice or NCP as the second choice. On the other hand, NCP is also not in a good situation especially due to the frictions among family members as well as party members, they too running towards BJP.
BJP will win more than 150 seats if it fights alone and Shiv Sena knows that fact. If you believe the Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut, he said even BJP gives kiss we will not respond, but during the Lok Sabha elections Raut had to chew his own words and joined hands with BJP. Now in assembly elections, Shiv Sena is asking 50–50 per cent seat sharing. Why BJP will share their seats to Sena? So, before every election, they purposely keep themselves in news and engage in talks so they brand themselves. Both parties development keep media watch and ticket seekers pay more to get the ticket. Once election is over they are ready to form government on saving democracy and stopping corrupt Congress from government and blah blah blah.
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