Services and manufacturing sector activities across emerging markets in January grew at the slowest pace in four months amid tough economic conditions, an HSBC survey said today.
The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a monthly indicator derived from PMI surveys, fell in January to 51.4, from 51.6 in December 2013, registering the second consecutive month of decline. “The January reading was the lowest since September 2013,” HSBC said.
The index manages to stay above the crucial 50 mark which separates growth from contraction.
“Although both the aggregate Manufacturing and Services EMI deteriorated in January, they remain in expansion territory,” HSBC Global Head of Emerging Markets Research Pablo Goldberg said.
Among the bigger emerging market economies, India’s private sector activity (manufacturing and services) witnessed an increase to 49.6 in January from 48.1 in December. The score, however, below the crucial 50 mark.
China’s manufacturing sector also deteriorated for the first time in six months.
The HSBC composite PMI number for January for China witnessed a decline (from 51.2 in December 2013 to 50.8 in January 2014) but managed to stay above the crucial 50 mark.
Brazil and Russia also witnessed similar trends.
The composite PMI reading for Brazil fell from 51.7 in December 2013 to 49.9 in January 2014. For Russia, there was a decline from 52.5 in December to 49.6 in January.
“Slower expansions in China and Brazil, and falling output in Russia and Indonesia, were offset by stronger growth in India, Poland, Taiwan and Mexico,” HSBC said.
Goldberg further added that there are two reasons to stay moderately upbeat on the resilience of EM economic activity.
“First, new export orders have improved for many countries and, second, the forward-looking new orders-inventory mix continues to improve,” Goldberg added.
Meanwhile, the HSBC Emerging Markets Future Output Index that maps firms’ expectations for activity in the next 12 months’ time picked up in January.
“…The future activity index shows a pick-up for manufacturing and a drop for services, suggesting expectations of an export-led recovery,” Goldberg said.