India’s economic growth rate in the current fiscal year (FY14) is expected to slide to 4.8 per cent and the prospects for 2014-15, which currently appear to be bright, hinge on the stability of the new government, according to rating agency Crisil.
“We believe growth will print at 6 per cent for 2014-15, up from our 4.8 per cent estimate for 2013-14,” Crisil said, adding that a normal monsoon would cushion growth and help in taming inflation.
Normal monsoons, reforms and global recovery would aid the growth process, it said, but cautioned that growth could weigh in below 5 per cent yet again if the above assumptions do not play out.
“We believe the pick-up will be aided by implementation of stalled projects, debottlenecking of the mining sector and a recovery in industry on higher external demand,” Crisil said in a report titled ‘India Economic Forecast’.
Growth rate in 2012-13 slipped to decade low of 5 per cent. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday projected the economy to grow at 4.6 per cent in the ongoing fiscal year, FY14.
Crisil said the next fiscal year (FY15) could be a year of new leadership and old challenges.
“The outcome of general elections in May could swing the medium term growth outlook either way. Political uncertainty is, therefore, a huge weight on the economy at this juncture,” it said.