Interim budget for 2014-2015, which the government will unveil on Monday, will set the tone for the stock markets in near-term, experts said.
Besides, global cues, movement of rupee and investment pattern of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) will also be important for the domestic indices.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram will present the interim budget on Monday ahead of the general elections due in the next three months.
“The Vote-on-Account will be watched closely. Within that, markets will try to understand the contours of the fiscal deficit. Moreover, any indirect-tax benefit to any sector may have an impact,” said Dipen Shah, Head of Private Client Group Research, Kotak Securities.
Experts said on the macro front, market participants will closely watch the FY’15 fiscal deficit target, which will determine the size of market borrowing for the next fiscal.
“Overall, the near-term trend is showing sell on rallies, and till Nifty closes decisively above 6,100, investors may book profit in rallies. In coming week, 6,100 shall be crucial deciding level in near-term, and the index is likely to witness further buying above this level,” said Rakesh Goyal, Senior Vice President, Bonanza Portfolio Limited.
Over the last week, the Sensex lost 9.74 points — the third straight weekly drop.
Persistent capital outflows from foreign funds mainly affected the market sentiment. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers of Rs. 106.96 crore during the week, including the provisional figure of February 14.
Ahead of the budget, the Indian markets have plunged more than 800 points so far in the year 2014 and 158 points in February alone.
Marketmen said going ahead the general elections due in May will take the centre stage and their outcome would be crucial for determining stock market direction.